
Episode 199
The Asian Financial Crisis & the Birth of the Age of Debt | Russell Napier

Episode 199
Russell Napier
The Asian Financial Crisis & the Birth of the Age of Debt | Russell Napier
summary
In Episode 199 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with investor and financial historian Russell Napier. Napier’s latest book, “The Asian Financial Crisis: 1995-1998,” covers a period of time that many investors are either not familiar with or haven’t studied anywhere near as closely as they should given its relevance to the investment regime in which we are living today.
Today’s investment regime—what Russell Napier called “The Age of Debt”—is characterized by excessive private and public debt levels, financial repression, market concentration, and all of the unintended consequences that arise from the perverse incentives that these dynamics create. We spend the first hour of our conversation discussing the crisis itself, it’s drivers, as well as the practices and policies that made it possible. The second hour is spent on the resolution of the crisis and applying the lessons learned from that period to today, with implications for the future path of interest rates, inflation, growth, political stability, and most practically, opportunities for investing in the new market regime that we are moving into.
Since this episode deals with markets and investing, we want to make absolutely clear that nothing we say on this podcast can or should be viewed as financial advice. All opinions expressed by Demetri Kofinas and Russell Napier are solely their own opinions and should not be relied upon as the basis for financial decisions.
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Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
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Episode Recorded on 07/09/2021
bio
Russell Napier is author of “The Solid Ground” investment report for institutional investors and co-founder of the investment research portal ERIC. Russell has worked in the investment business for over 30 years and has been advising global institutional investors on asset allocation since 1995. He is author of the book “Anatomy of The Bear: Lessons From Wall Street’s Four Great Bottoms” (‘a cult classic’ according to the FT) and is founder and course director of The Practical History of Financial Markets course that is part of the Edinburgh Business School MBA. Russell is Chairman of the Mid Wynd International Investment Trust. He is a member of the investment advisory committees of two fund management companies, Cerno Capital and Kennox Asset Management. In 2014 Russell founded the charitable venture “The Library of Mistakes,” a business and financial history library in Edinburgh that now has branches in India and Switzerland. Russell has degrees in law from Queen’s University Belfast and Magdalene College Cambridge. He is a Fellow of The CFA Society of the UK and is an Honorary Professor at both Heriot-Watt University and The University of Stirling.
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Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Quare hoc videndum est, possitne nobis hoc ratio philosophorum dare. Multoque hoc melius nos veriusque quam Stoici. Ait enim se, si uratur, Quam hoc suave! dicturum. Ille enim occurrentia nescio quae comminiscebatur; Etenim semper illud extra est, quod arte comprehenditur. Duo Reges: constructio interrete.
In qua si nihil est praeter rationem, sit in una virtute finis bonorum; Illud quaero, quid ei, qui in voluptate summum bonum ponat, consentaneum sit dicere. Illa argumenta propria videamus, cur omnia sint paria peccata. Suo enim quisque studio maxime ducitur. Negat enim summo bono afferre incrementum diem.
Quis est tam dissimile homini. Itaque vides, quo modo loquantur, nova verba fingunt, deserunt usitata. Sic, et quidem diligentius saepiusque ista loquemur inter nos agemusque communiter.
Illa videamus, quae a te de amicitia dicta sunt. Quamquam tu hanc copiosiorem etiam soles dicere. Itaque mihi non satis videmini considerare quod iter sit naturae quaeque progressio. Quod quidem iam fit etiam in Academia. Profectus in exilium Tubulus statim nec respondere ausus; Potius inflammat, ut coercendi magis quam dedocendi esse videantur. Tanti autem aderant vesicae et torminum morbi, ut nihil ad eorum magnitudinem posset accedere. Itaque et manendi in vita et migrandi ratio omnis iis rebus, quas supra dixi, metienda.
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Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Conferam tecum, quam cuique verso rem subicias; Duo Reges: constructio interrete. Placet igitur tibi, Cato, cum res sumpseris non concessas, ex illis efficere, quod velis? Est tamen ea secundum naturam multoque nos ad se expetendam magis hortatur quam superiora omnia. Quae tamen a te agetur non melior, quam illae sunt, quas interdum optines. Quis istud possit, inquit, negare? Bestiarum vero nullum iudicium puto. Qui-vere falsone, quaerere mittimus-dicitur oculis se privasse; Sed emolumenta communia esse dicuntur, recte autem facta et peccata non habentur communia. Quod si ita sit, cur opera philosophiae sit danda nescio. Sic enim censent, oportunitatis esse beate vivere.
Sic enim censent, oportunitatis esse beate vivere. Tu quidem reddes; Nunc ita separantur, ut disiuncta sint, quo nihil potest esse perversius. Traditur, inquit, ab Epicuro ratio neglegendi doloris. Gerendus est mos, modo recte sentiat. Prave, nequiter, turpiter cenabat; Quod quidem iam fit etiam in Academia. Ego vero volo in virtute vim esse quam maximam; Plane idem, inquit, et maxima quidem, qua fieri nulla maior potest. Collige omnia, quae soletis: Praesidium amicorum.
Ut in geometria, prima si dederis, danda sunt omnia. At certe gravius. Cum salvum esse flentes sui respondissent, rogavit essentne fusi hostes. Cur id non ita fit? Ut in geometria, prima si dederis, danda sunt omnia. Sed in rebus apertissimis nimium longi sumus. Videamus animi partes, quarum est conspectus illustrior; Cupit enim dícere nihil posse ad beatam vitam deesse sapienti. Tum Piso: Atqui, Cicero, inquit, ista studia, si ad imitandos summos viros spectant, ingeniosorum sunt;
Ergo hoc quidem apparet, nos ad agendum esse natos. Quo invento omnis ab eo quasi capite de summo bono et malo disputatio ducitur. Conclusum est enim contra Cyrenaicos satis acute, nihil ad Epicurum. Itaque contra est, ac dicitis; Idque testamento cavebit is, qui nobis quasi oraculum ediderit nihil post mortem ad nos pertinere? Illis videtur, qui illud non dubitant bonum dicere -; Atqui haec patefactio quasi rerum opertarum, cum quid quidque sit aperitur, definitio est. Post enim Chrysippum eum non sane est disputatum.
intelligence report
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Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Sed quid sentiat, non videtis. His singulis copiose responderi solet, sed quae perspicua sunt longa esse non debent.
Idemne, quod iucunde? Hoc est non modo cor non habere, sed ne palatum quidem. Tertium autem omnibus aut maximis rebus iis, quae secundum naturam sint, fruentem vivere. Ampulla enim sit necne sit, quis non iure optimo irrideatur, si laboret? Atque his de rebus et splendida est eorum et illustris oratio. Transfer idem ad modestiam vel temperantiam, quae est moderatio cupiditatum rationi oboediens. Conferam tecum, quam cuique verso rem subicias;
Quid est enim aliud esse versutum? Quid ait Aristoteles reliquique Platonis alumni? Stuprata per vim Lucretia a regis filio testata civis se ipsa interemit. Quamquam tu hanc copiosiorem etiam soles dicere. At modo dixeras nihil in istis rebus esse, quod interesset.
Restant Stoici, qui cum a Peripateticis et Academicis omnia transtulissent, nominibus aliis easdem res secuti sunt. Ut enim consuetudo loquitur, id solum dicitur honestum, quod est populari fama gloriosum. Duo Reges: constructio interrete. Cum praesertim illa perdiscere ludus esset. Etsi ea quidem, quae adhuc dixisti, quamvis ad aetatem recte isto modo dicerentur. Illum mallem levares, quo optimum atque humanissimum virum, Cn. Sed quia studebat laudi et dignitati, multum in virtute processerat. Sit hoc ultimum bonorum, quod nunc a me defenditur; Quis istud, quaeso, nesciebat? Nonne odio multos dignos putamus, qui quodam motu aut statu videntur naturae legem et modum contempsisse?
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Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Audio equidem philosophi vocem, Epicure, sed quid tibi dicendum sit oblitus es. Et hercule-fatendum est enim, quod sentio -mirabilis est apud illos contextus rerum. Aeque enim contingit omnibus fidibus, ut incontentae sint. Hoc enim identidem dicitis, non intellegere nos quam dicatis voluptatem. Illum mallem levares, quo optimum atque humanissimum virum, Cn. Duo Reges: constructio interrete.
De hominibus dici non necesse est. Estne, quaeso, inquam, sitienti in bibendo voluptas? Saepe ab Aristotele, a Theophrasto mirabiliter est laudata per se ipsa rerum scientia; Traditur, inquit, ab Epicuro ratio neglegendi doloris. Est autem etiam actio quaedam corporis, quae motus et status naturae congruentis tenet; Fortasse id optimum, sed ubi illud: Plus semper voluptatis? Unum est sine dolore esse, alterum cum voluptate. Ea possunt paria non esse.
Homines optimi non intellegunt totam rationem everti, si ita res se habeat. Res enim se praeclare habebat, et quidem in utraque parte. Maximus dolor, inquit, brevis est. Non est igitur summum malum dolor.
Theophrastum tamen adhibeamus ad pleraque, dum modo plus in virtute teneamus, quam ille tenuit, firmitatis et roboris. Huius ego nunc auctoritatem sequens idem faciam.