
Episode 134
Radical Uncertainty: Investing in a Volatile World | Eric Peters

Episode 134
Eric Peters
Radical Uncertainty: Investing in a Volatile World | Eric Peters
summary
In Episode 134 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management and author of Weekend Notes about investing in a volatile world where four decades of assumptions about markets, politics, and policy no longer hold.
We are living through a period of radical uncertainty and disillusionment with institutions and markets that we haven’t seen for a hundred years. International alliances are shifting. National priorities are changing. The role of government in society is growing. The stakes for portfolio managers, politicians and individuals have never been higher.
Learning how to navigate the volatility and radical uncertainty of the present moment is the seminal challenge that we face. How we manage that uncertainty in the years to come presents not only a financial challenge but an emotional one as well. It will define a generation and shape the fortunes of more to come.
If you want access to Demetri’s overtime with Eric Peters, as well as to the transcript and rundown for this week’s episode you can find those on our Hidden Forces Supercast Page. All subscribers gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.
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Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
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bio
Eric Peters is the Founder, CEO, and CIO of One River Asset Management. He has spent his 30+ year career trading global macro markets in NY, London, Chicago, California and now Connecticut. His firm manages five high conviction absolute-return volatility-oriented and systematic-trend strategies for corporate pensions, university endowments, superannuations, and asset managers across the US, UK, Australia and Asia.  Eric sees the world in a period of major economic and political transition, with the investment landscape shifting in ways that will make the coming five years look profoundly different from the past five. His firm’s strategies are built to profit from this dynamic environment while providing strong diversification benefits to traditional investment portfolios.
Eric also writes Weekend Notes, an unorthodox take on markets, politics, and policy that’s widely by investors who manage over $1trln in altnerative assets. The publication is also read by global central bankers, and senior leaders within policy and political circles. It is through this channel that he exchanges ideas and information, developing dialogue, and identifying risk/opportunities. It has been published every Sunday for a decade. Archived copies are available on LinkedIn.
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Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Mihi, inquam, qui te id ipsum rogavi? Bonum integritas corporis: misera debilitas. Rapior illuc, revocat autem Antiochus, nec est praeterea, quem audiamus. Dolor ergo, id est summum malum, metuetur semper, etiamsi non aderit; Deprehensus omnem poenam contemnet. Sed tamen intellego quid velit. Quis Pullum Numitorium Fregellanum, proditorem, quamquam rei publicae nostrae profuit, non odit?
Idque testamento cavebit is, qui nobis quasi oraculum ediderit nihil post mortem ad nos pertinere? Hanc ergo intuens debet institutum illud quasi signum absolvere. Aliter enim nosmet ipsos nosse non possumus. Etenim semper illud extra est, quod arte comprehenditur. Etenim nec iustitia nec amicitia esse omnino poterunt, nisi ipsae per se expetuntur.
Maximas vero virtutes iacere omnis necesse est voluptate dominante. Duo Reges: constructio interrete. Quis animo aequo videt eum, quem inpure ac flagitiose putet vivere? Si quae forte-possumus.
Idemque diviserunt naturam hominis in animum et corpus. Nam memini etiam quae nolo, oblivisci non possum quae volo. Quam illa ardentis amores excitaret sui! Cur tandem? Omnes enim iucundum motum, quo sensus hilaretur. Cur post Tarentum ad Archytam? Nonne videmus quanta perturbatio rerum omnium consequatur, quanta confusio?
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Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Ipse Epicurus fortasse redderet, ut Sextus Peducaeus, Sex. Quid ad utilitatem tantae pecuniae? Ubi ut eam caperet aut quando? Quicquid porro animo cernimus, id omne oritur a sensibus; Duo enim genera quae erant, fecit tria. Paulum, cum regem Persem captum adduceret, eodem flumine invectio?
Esse enim, nisi eris, non potes. Non minor, inquit, voluptas percipitur ex vilissimis rebus quam ex pretiosissimis. Sed virtutem ipsam inchoavit, nihil amplius. Quid enim possumus hoc agere divinius?
Itaque fecimus. Vos autem cum perspicuis dubia debeatis illustrare, dubiis perspicua conamini tollere. Optime, inquam. Duo Reges: constructio interrete. Quid est enim aliud esse versutum?
Huius, Lyco, oratione locuples, rebus ipsis ielunior. An tu me de L. Paupertas si malum est, mendicus beatus esse nemo potest, quamvis sit sapiens. Quod iam a me expectare noli. Philosophi autem in suis lectulis plerumque moriuntur. Equidem etiam Epicurum, in physicis quidem, Democriteum puto. Quae cum essent dicta, discessimus. Huic mori optimum esse propter desperationem sapientiae, illi propter spem vivere. Nam Pyrrho, Aristo, Erillus iam diu abiecti. Haec para/doca illi, nos admirabilia dicamus.
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Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Ostendit pedes et pectus. At quicum ioca seria, ut dicitur, quicum arcana, quicum occulta omnia? Sed quid minus probandum quam esse aliquem beatum nec satis beatum? Quid ergo aliud intellegetur nisi uti ne quae pars naturae neglegatur? Duo Reges: constructio interrete. Fatebuntur Stoici haec omnia dicta esse praeclare, neque eam causam Zenoni desciscendi fuisse. Quis istud possit, inquit, negare?
Non igitur de improbo, sed de callido improbo quaerimus, qualis Q. Quorum sine causa fieri nihil putandum est. Nos paucis ad haec additis finem faciamus aliquando; Maximas vero virtutes iacere omnis necesse est voluptate dominante. Qui autem esse poteris, nisi te amor ipse ceperit? Habes, inquam, Cato, formam eorum, de quibus loquor, philosophorum.
Servari enim iustitia nisi a forti viro, nisi a sapiente non potest. At ego quem huic anteponam non audeo dicere; An vero, inquit, quisquam potest probare, quod perceptfum, quod. Traditur, inquit, ab Epicuro ratio neglegendi doloris. Quam nemo umquam voluptatem appellavit, appellat; Me igitur ipsum ames oportet, non mea, si veri amici futuri sumus.
Non est enim vitium in oratione solum, sed etiam in moribus. Eam tum adesse, cum dolor omnis absit; Atqui eorum nihil est eius generis, ut sit in fine atque extrerno bonorum. An me, inquam, nisi te audire vellem, censes haec dicturum fuisse? Dempta enim aeternitate nihilo beatior Iuppiter quam Epicurus; De vacuitate doloris eadem sententia erit. Ita enim vivunt quidam, ut eorum vita refellatur oratio.
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Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Atque ab isto capite fluere necesse est omnem rationem bonorum et malorum. Ita similis erit ei finis boni, atque antea fuerat, neque idem tamen; Restinguet citius, si ardentem acceperit. Cur post Tarentum ad Archytam? Utrum igitur tibi litteram videor an totas paginas commovere? Solum praeterea formosum, solum liberum, solum civem, stultost; Maximus dolor, inquit, brevis est. Duo Reges: constructio interrete.
Cur tantas regiones barbarorum pedibus obiit, tot maria transmisit? Idem fecisset Epicurus, si sententiam hanc, quae nunc Hieronymi est, coniunxisset cum Aristippi vetere sententia. Cur, nisi quod turpis oratio est? Sed quid attinet de rebus tam apertis plura requirere? Si quicquam extra virtutem habeatur in bonis. Hoc Hieronymus summum bonum esse dixit. Iam quae corporis sunt, ea nec auctoritatem cum animi partibus, comparandam et cognitionem habent faciliorem. Ergo, si semel tristior effectus est, hilara vita amissa est?
Ita enim vivunt quidam, ut eorum vita refellatur oratio. Non enim quaero quid verum, sed quid cuique dicendum sit. In schola desinis. Piso, familiaris noster, et alia multa et hoc loco Stoicos irridebat: Quid enim? Si longus, levis; At, illa, ut vobis placet, partem quandam tuetur, reliquam deserit. Ad corpus diceres pertinere-, sed ea, quae dixi, ad corpusne refers? Ergo adhuc, quantum equidem intellego, causa non videtur fuisse mutandi nominis.
Quis hoc dicit? Id mihi magnum videtur. Ita multo sanguine profuso in laetitia et in victoria est mortuus. Hic quoque suus est de summoque bono dissentiens dici vere Peripateticus non potest. Si enim ad populum me vocas, eum. Varietates autem iniurasque fortunae facile veteres philosophorum praeceptis instituta vita superabat.