
Episode 142
‘Stonks,’ the Rise of Retail Bros, & Powell’s Money Printer | Tony Greer

Episode 142
Tony Greer
‘Stonks,’ the Rise of Retail Bros, & Powell’s Money Printer | Tony Greer
summary
In Episode 142 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Tony Greer, editor of the Morning Navigator and the founder of TG Macro
This episode begins with a clip from David Portnoy (a.k.a Barstool Dave or Davey Daytrader), in what is probably the most epic hype video ever created for stock trading.
Portnoy has come to personify not only the recent rip-roaring retracement in equities, but also, the philosophy that the stock market no longer bears any relationship to the real economy. “It took me a while to figure out that the stock market isn’t connected to the economy,” according to David Portnoy. “I tell people there are two rules to investing: Stocks only go up, and if you have any problems, see rule No. 1.”
Extraordinary monetary interventions remain the single most important causal factor for explaining this phenomenon (what we have referred to on this show as “market nihilism”). Whether investment flows are coming from passive funds or “passive people,” what’s important is that the allocators invest indiscriminately. As the popular fraise goes: “Always buy the fucking dip” (#ABTFD)
In our past episodes with Mike Green, we have explored the role of systematic passive investment vehicles in driving markets higher. With the recent return of the retail investor an additional layer of passivity has been added. Not only are these investors seemingly “price inelastic,” but they also exhibit a disturbing level of indifference to fundamentals that is qualitatively different from anything seen in past generations. Unlike the Gen-X and Boomer cohorts of 1999 who felt that they could see a future that others could not yet perceive, this generation of zoomers and millennials seems to feel that they have figured out something far more fundamental about how things work today. In their view, the notion that the stock market has any relationship to economic reality is laughable. Fundamentals can’t hold a candle to Jay Powell and his money printer. Along with this realization comes a mocking, self-deprecatory celebration of aberrance. Indeed, going through r/WallStreetBets or wojack images on crypto subreddits exposes you to imagery that is reminiscent of a scene from the Island of Dr. Moreau.
In their 90-minute conversation, Tony and Demetri explore all of these themes. They discuss the recent rip-roaring retracement in equities and how the Federal Reserve, with its relentless money-printing has broken the economy, turned the stock market into a casino, and sown the seeds for a political crisis unlike any we have seen in more than a generation.
You can access the episode overtime, as well as the transcript and rundown to this week’s episode through the Hidden Forces Supercast Page. This week’s rundown is particularly helpful for anyone trying to follow along or who has not been properly exposed to the subjects discussed in today’s episode.
All subscribers gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.
Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces
Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod
Episode Recorded on 06/15/2020
bio
Tony Greer is editor of the Morning Navigator and the founder of TG Macro, an independent research firm that provides fundamental, technical, and behavioral analysis of global markets. After graduating from Cornell University in 1990, Greer began his career in the treasury department of Sumitomo Bank as an FX trading assistant. In 1993 he joined Union Bank of Switzerland as an FX and commodities trader, spending half a year as a Vice President in their Zurich treasury department, returning to New York City in early 1995 to join J. Aron & Company, the privately held commodity trading arm of Goldman Sachs. There he managed risk for the Goldman Sachs Commodities Index, in precious and base metals trading, and in futures and options trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Greer left his commodity trading seat in early 2000 to start his first venture – Machine Trading. That experience eventually led him to begin creating content: “I believe there is massive opportunity in both the unprecedented situation in global markets and in the way financial news is consumed,” says Greer.
transcript
content locked
or Subscribe to Access Premium Content
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Quamquam id quidem, infinitum est in hac urbe; Sed non sunt in eo genere tantae commoditates corporis tamque productae temporibus tamque multae. Si longus, levis; Tamen aberramus a proposito, et, ne longius, prorsus, inquam, Piso, si ista mala sunt, placet. Cur igitur, inquam, res tam dissimiles eodem nomine appellas?
Sed utrum hortandus es nobis, Luci, inquit, an etiam tua sponte propensus es? Memini me adesse P. Duo Reges: constructio interrete. Minime vero, inquit ille, consentit. Contemnit enim disserendi elegantiam, confuse loquitur. Hoc est dicere: Non reprehenderem asotos, si non essent asoti.
Age nunc isti doceant, vel tu potius quis enim ista melius? Sed tu istuc dixti bene Latine, parum plane. Ut aliquid scire se gaudeant? Minime id quidem, inquam, alienum, multumque ad ea, quae quaerimus, explicatio tua ista profecerit. Quid sequatur, quid repugnet, vident.
Omnia contraria, quos etiam insanos esse vultis. Traditur, inquit, ab Epicuro ratio neglegendi doloris. Praetereo multos, in bis doctum hominem et suavem, Hieronymum, quem iam cur Peripateticum appellem nescio. Quae animi affectio suum cuique tribuens atque hanc, quam dico. Cum id fugiunt, re eadem defendunt, quae Peripatetici, verba. Hoc etsi multimodis reprehendi potest, tamen accipio, quod dant. Primum Theophrasti, Strato, physicum se voluit;
Full Episode
content locked
or Subscribe to Access Premium Content
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Teneo, inquit, finem illi videri nihil dolere. Licet hic rursus ea commemores, quae optimis verbis ab Epicuro de laude amicitiae dicta sunt. Negat enim summo bono afferre incrementum diem. Sit ista in Graecorum levitate perversitas, qui maledictis insectantur eos, a quibus de veritate dissentiunt. Non enim in selectione virtus ponenda erat, ut id ipsum, quod erat bonorum ultimum, aliud aliquid adquireret. Quid enim me prohiberet Epicureum esse, si probarem, quae ille diceret? Prave, nequiter, turpiter cenabat; Duo Reges: constructio interrete. Unum nescio, quo modo possit, si luxuriosus sit, finitas cupiditates habere. Cupiditates non Epicuri divisione finiebat, sed sua satietate. Omnes enim iucundum motum, quo sensus hilaretur.
Si sapiens, ne tum quidem miser, cum ab Oroete, praetore Darei, in crucem actus est. Homines optimi non intellegunt totam rationem everti, si ita res se habeat. Ne in odium veniam, si amicum destitero tueri. Honesta oratio, Socratica, Platonis etiam. Illa sunt similia: hebes acies est cuipiam oculorum, corpore alius senescit; Compensabatur, inquit, cum summis doloribus laetitia.
Nam ista vestra: Si gravis, brevis; Indicant pueri, in quibus ut in speculis natura cernitur. Quamquam in hac divisione rem ipsam prorsus probo, elegantiam desidero. Si quicquam extra virtutem habeatur in bonis. Nihil opus est exemplis hoc facere longius. Cur igitur easdem res, inquam, Peripateticis dicentibus verbum nullum est, quod non intellegatur? Sed emolumenta communia esse dicuntur, recte autem facta et peccata non habentur communia. Sed ille, ut dixi, vitiose.
Ergo in utroque exercebantur, eaque disciplina effecit tantam illorum utroque in genere dicendi copiam. Quod autem ratione actum est, id officium appellamus. Propter nos enim illam, non propter eam nosmet ipsos diligimus. Paulum, cum regem Persem captum adduceret, eodem flumine invectio? Quis est tam dissimile homini. Si enim ad populum me vocas, eum.
intelligence report
content locked
or Subscribe to Access Premium Content
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Quam tu ponis in verbis, ego positam in re putabam. Itaque nostrum est-quod nostrum dico, artis est-ad ea principia, quae accepimus. Ut id aliis narrare gestiant? Tu enim ista lenius, hic Stoicorum more nos vexat. Ergo adhuc, quantum equidem intellego, causa non videtur fuisse mutandi nominis. Duo Reges: constructio interrete.
Cupiditates non Epicuri divisione finiebat, sed sua satietate. Non laboro, inquit, de nomine. Est enim tanti philosophi tamque nobilis audacter sua decreta defendere. Nec vero sum nescius esse utilitatem in historia, non modo voluptatem. Proclivi currit oratio.
Sed quoniam et advesperascit et mihi ad villam revertendum est, nunc quidem hactenus; Idemne potest esse dies saepius, qui semel fuit? Huius ego nunc auctoritatem sequens idem faciam. Qui non moveatur et offensione turpitudinis et comprobatione honestatis? Non semper, inquam; Aeque enim contingit omnibus fidibus, ut incontentae sint. Invidiosum nomen est, infame, suspectum. Sin tantum modo ad indicia veteris memoriae cognoscenda, curiosorum.
Id enim volumus, id contendimus, ut officii fructus sit ipsum officium. Similiter sensus, cum accessit ad naturam, tuetur illam quidem, sed etiam se tuetur; Sin te auctoritas commovebat, nobisne omnibus et Platoni ipsi nescio quem illum anteponebas? Hoc dictum in una re latissime patet, ut in omnibus factis re, non teste moveamur. Nunc ita separantur, ut disiuncta sint, quo nihil potest esse perversius.
related episodes
Episode 123
Grant Williams & Ben Hunt
Market Nihilism: Price Discovery in a World Where Nothing Matters | Ben Hunt & Grant Williams
Episode 114
Mike Green
Mike Green | The Greatest Story Ever Sold: The Rise of Passive Investing & the Fall of the Free Market
Episode 137
Michael Pettis
How the Wealth Gap Drives Imbalances in Global Trade & Finance | Michael Pettis
Episode 130
Gillian Tett
Wartime Economy: The Greatest Financial & Political Crisis Since World War II | Gillian Tett
Episode 122
Christopher Cole
The Hundred Year Portfolio: How to Grow & Protect Generational Wealth | Christopher Cole
Episode 131
Hari Krishnan
The Second Leg Down: Strategies for Profiting After a Market Sell-Off | Hari Krishnan
Episode 118
Jim Grant
What’s the Price of Mispricing Risk? Interest Rates, Repo Markets, and an Activist Fed | Jim Grant
Episode 120
Michael Lind
How to End the New Class War and Save Democracy From the Managerial Elite | Michael Lind
Episode 102
William R. White
William White | Financial Fault Lines, Central Banks, and the Law of Unintended Consequences
Episode 138
Adam Tooze
Germany’s Constitutional Court Ruling & the Myth of Central Bank Independence | Adam Tooze
Episode 128
George Selgin
Government-Mandated Shutdown: Monetary & Fiscal Policy in Crisis | George Selgin
Premium Release
Nic Carter
Monetary Revolution: Innovation in the Age of Financial Repression | Nic Carter
Episode 136
Michael Casey
The Great Monetary Inflation & the Future of Digital Money | Michael Casey
Episode 73
Daniel Peris
Quantifying Uncertainty: A History of Financial Theory and its Implications | Daniel Peris
Episode 53
Gillian Tett
Gillian Tett of the Financial Times on the Similarities Between Wall Street and Silicon Valley
Episode 27
Gary Shilling
Gary Shilling | Perennial Bond Bull on the Impact of Regulatory Reform and the Trump Tax Plan
Episode 25
Lacy Hunt
Lacy Hunt | The Global Macro Forces of Debt, Deflation, and Demographics on Markets and the Economy
Episode 96
Raoul Pal
Raoul Pal | The Fourth Turning: Generational Theory and the Future of Global Money
Video
content locked
or Subscribe to Access Premium Content
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. -, sed ut hoc iudicaremus, non esse in iis partem maximam positam beate aut secus vivendi. An ea, quae per vinitorem antea consequebatur, per se ipsa curabit? Qui potest igitur habitare in beata vita summi mali metus? Sed haec in pueris; Ergo hoc quidem apparet, nos ad agendum esse natos. Hoc non est positum in nostra actione. Ab his oratores, ab his imperatores ac rerum publicarum principes extiterunt. Duo Reges: constructio interrete. Contemnit enim disserendi elegantiam, confuse loquitur. Quo invento omnis ab eo quasi capite de summo bono et malo disputatio ducitur. Nec vero hoc oratione solum, sed multo magis vita et factis et moribus comprobavit. Theophrasti igitur, inquit, tibi liber ille placet de beata vita?
Semper enim ita adsumit aliquid, ut ea, quae prima dederit, non deserat. Eam si varietatem diceres, intellegerem, ut etiam non dicente te intellego; Nondum autem explanatum satis, erat, quid maxime natura vellet. Erat enim Polemonis. At certe gravius. Egone non intellego, quid sit don Graece, Latine voluptas? Certe, nisi voluptatem tanti aestimaretis. Sin ea non neglegemus neque tamen ad finem summi boni referemus, non multum ab Erilli levitate aberrabimus. Tum ille: Tu autem cum ipse tantum librorum habeas, quos hic tandem requiris? Philosophi autem in suis lectulis plerumque moriuntur.
Superiores tres erant, quae esse possent, quarum est una sola defensa, eaque vehementer. Tum Triarius: Posthac quidem, inquit, audacius. Virtutibus igitur rectissime mihi videris et ad consuetudinem nostrae orationis vitia posuisse contraria. Semper enim ex eo, quod maximas partes continet latissimeque funditur, tota res appellatur. Praeterea sublata cognitione et scientia tollitur omnis ratio et vitae degendae et rerum gerendarum. Nec hoc ille non vidit, sed verborum magnificentia est et gloria delectatus. Idem fecisset Epicurus, si sententiam hanc, quae nunc Hieronymi est, coniunxisset cum Aristippi vetere sententia. Non enim ipsa genuit hominem, sed accepit a natura inchoatum.
Etsi qui potest intellegi aut cogitari esse aliquod animal, quod se oderit? Eaedem enim utilitates poterunt eas labefactare atque pervertere. At hoc in eo M. Ita relinquet duas, de quibus etiam atque etiam consideret. Atque his de rebus et splendida est eorum et illustris oratio. Aliter homines, aliter philosophos loqui putas oportere? An vero displicuit ea, quae tributa est animi virtutibus tanta praestantia? Nos paucis ad haec additis finem faciamus aliquando;