In Episode 142 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Tony Greer, editor of the Morning Navigator and the founder of TG Macro

This episode begins with a clip from David Portnoy (a.k.a Barstool Dave or Davey Daytrader), in what is probably the most epic hype video ever created for stock trading. 

Portnoy has come to personify not only the recent rip-roaring retracement in equities, but also, the philosophy that the stock market no longer bears any relationship to the real economy. “It took me a while to figure out that the stock market isn’t connected to the economy,” according to David Portnoy. “I tell people there are two rules to investing: Stocks only go up, and if you have any problems, see rule No. 1.”

Extraordinary monetary interventions remain the single most important causal factor for explaining this phenomenon (what we have referred to on this show as “market nihilism”). Whether investment flows are coming from passive funds or “passive people,” what’s important is that the allocators invest indiscriminately. As the popular fraise goes: “Always buy the fucking dip” (#ABTFD)

In our past episodes with Mike Green, we have explored the role of systematic passive investment vehicles in driving markets higher. With the recent return of the retail investor an additional layer of passivity has been added. Not only are these investors seemingly “price inelastic,” but they also exhibit a disturbing level of indifference to fundamentals that is qualitatively different from anything seen in past generations. Unlike the Gen-X and Boomer cohorts of 1999 who felt that they could see a future that others could not yet perceive, this generation of zoomers and millennials seems to feel that they have figured out something far more fundamental about how things work today. In their view, the notion that the stock market has any relationship to economic reality is laughable. Fundamentals can’t hold a candle to Jay Powell and his money printer. Along with this realization comes a mocking, self-deprecatory celebration of aberrance. Indeed, going through r/WallStreetBets or wojack images on crypto subreddits exposes you to imagery that is reminiscent of a scene from the Island of Dr. Moreau.

In their 90-minute conversation, Tony and Demetri explore all of these themes. They discuss the recent rip-roaring retracement in equities and how the Federal Reserve, with its relentless money-printing has broken the economy, turned the stock market into a casino, and sown the seeds for a political crisis unlike any we have seen in more than a generation. 

You can access the episode overtime, as well as the transcript and rundown to this week’s episode through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. This week’s rundown is particularly helpful for anyone trying to follow along or who has not been properly exposed to the subjects discussed in today’s episode.

All subscribers gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.

Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

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Episode Recorded on 06/15/2020

Tony Greer is editor of the Morning Navigator and the founder of TG Macro, an independent research firm that provides fundamental, technical, and behavioral analysis of global markets. After graduating from Cornell University in 1990, Greer began his career in the treasury department of Sumitomo Bank as an FX trading assistant. In 1993 he joined Union Bank of Switzerland as an FX and commodities trader, spending half a year as a Vice President in their Zurich treasury department, returning to New York City in early 1995 to join J. Aron & Company, the privately held commodity trading arm of Goldman Sachs. There he managed risk for the Goldman Sachs Commodities Index, in precious and base metals trading, and in futures and options trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Greer left his commodity trading seat in early 2000 to start his first venture – Machine Trading. That experience eventually led him to begin creating content: “I believe there is massive opportunity in both the unprecedented situation in global markets and in the way financial news is consumed,” says Greer.