Tim Lee is the founder of the independent economics consultancy pi Economics, serving financial institutions from hedge funds to traditional asset managers. Previously he worked for global asset managers including GT Management and Invesco in Hong Kong and London. He is the author of the highly regarded Economics for Professional Investors (2nd edition, 1998) and his commentaries and analysis have been widely quoted in the media. Tim was educated at Magdalene College, Cambridge University. Jamie Lee works for investment guru and philanthropist Jeremy Grantham, focusing on environmental research and volatility trading. He previously worked as economist and analyst for asset management companies in Boston and London. Jamie holds a B.A. in Mathematics and English from Dartmouth College. Kevin Coldiron teaches the Masters in Financial Engineering course at Berkeley (Haas Business School), having previously had a very successful career in asset management with Barclays Global Investors and the hedge fund Algert Coldiron, which he co-founded.
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Episode 153
Tim Lee, Jamie Lee, & Kevin Coldiron
The Rise of Carry: the New Financial Order of Decaying Growth & Recurring Crisis | Tim Lee, Jamie Lee, & Kevin Coldiron
Tim Lee is the founder of the independent economics consultancy pi Economics, serving financial institutions from hedge funds to traditional asset managers. Previously he worked for global asset managers including GT Management and Invesco in Hong Kong and London. He is the author of the highly regarded Economics for Professional Investors (2nd edition, 1998) and his commentaries and analysis have been widely quoted in the media. Tim was educated at Magdalene College, Cambridge University. Jamie Lee works for investment guru and philanthropist Jeremy Grantham, focusing on environmental research and volatility trading. He previously worked as economist and analyst for asset management companies in Boston and London. Jamie holds a B.A. in Mathematics and English from Dartmouth College. Kevin Coldiron teaches the Masters in Financial Engineering course at Berkeley (Haas Business School), having previously had a very successful career in asset management with Barclays Global Investors and the hedge fund Algert Coldiron, which he co-founded.
In Episode 153 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with authors Kevin Coldiron, Jamie Lee, and Tim Lee, as they explain how the behavior of financial markets today is not, as is commonly believed, some function of the economy, interest rates, or political developments, but rather a manifestation of what they call “the rise of carry” or the suppression of volatility.
In finance, a carry trade is typically thought of as an interest rate arbitrage expressed as a trade between two currencies, where the more historically stable currency is used to fund the purchase of an historically less-stable but higher yielding alternative in exchange for taking on currency risk.
The authors extend this principle across every facet of the economy in an effort to show that the logic of carry has increasingly become the dominant force driving market behavior and by extension, asset prices.
If we are to agree that financial markets play a vital function in a capitalist economy and that their value ultimately derives from the underlying businesses and cash flows that their prices should reflect, then the rise of carry in a highly levered, fiat economy represents an existential threat to all aspects of human affairs.
The authors argue that we appear to be closer to this eventuality than ever before, but what will the collapse of carry or its ignition create? What will it look and feel like? What could allow it to continue? How might we stop it? Or is it already too late? We tackle all these questions and more during the course of this nearly two-hour-long conversation.
You can access the episode overtime, as well as the transcript and rundown to this week’s episode through the Hidden Forces Supercast Page. All subscribers gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.
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Tim Lee is the founder of the independent economics consultancy pi Economics, serving financial institutions from hedge funds to traditional asset managers. Previously he worked for global asset managers including GT Management and Invesco in Hong Kong and London. He is the author of the highly regarded Economics for Professional Investors (2nd edition, 1998) and his commentaries and analysis have been widely quoted in the media. Tim was educated at Magdalene College, Cambridge University.
Jamie Lee works for investment guru and philanthropist Jeremy Grantham, focusing on environmental research and volatility trading. He previously worked as economist and analyst for asset management companies in Boston and London. Jamie holds a B.A. in Mathematics and English from Dartmouth College.
Kevin Coldiron teaches the Masters in Financial Engineering course at Berkeley (Haas Business School), having previously had a very successful career in asset management with Barclays Global Investors and the hedge fund Algert Coldiron, which he co-founded.
Demetri Kofinas is a media entrepreneur and financial analyst whose mission is to help uncover the hidden forces and pivotal patterns shaping our lives. His contrarian perspective and critical-thinking approach has helped hundreds of thousands of people make smarter, informed decisions. This same methodology has helped guide Demetri’s decision-making as an early-stage investor and as a creator of several innovative media properties and live events.
Demetri Kofinas is a media entrepreneur and financial analyst whose mission is to help uncover the hidden forces and pivotal patterns shaping our lives. His contrarian perspective and critical-thinking approach has helped hundreds of thousands of people make smarter, informed decisions. This same methodology has helped guide Demetri’s decision-making as an early-stage investor and as a creator of several innovative media properties and live events.
Demetri Kofinas is a media entrepreneur and financial analyst whose mission is to help uncover the hidden forces and pivotal patterns shaping our lives. His contrarian perspective and critical-thinking approach has helped hundreds of thousands of people make smarter, informed decisions. This same methodology has helped guide Demetri’s decision-making as an early-stage investor and as a creator of several innovative media properties and live events.
Demetri Kofinas is a media entrepreneur and financial analyst whose mission is to help uncover the hidden forces and pivotal patterns shaping our lives. His contrarian perspective and critical-thinking approach has helped hundreds of thousands of people make smarter, informed decisions. This same methodology has helped guide Demetri’s decision-making as an early-stage investor and as a creator of several innovative media properties and live events.
Demetri Kofinas is a media entrepreneur and financial analyst whose mission is to help uncover the hidden forces and pivotal patterns shaping our lives. His contrarian perspective and critical-thinking approach has helped hundreds of thousands of people make smarter, informed decisions. This same methodology has helped guide Demetri’s decision-making as an early-stage investor and as a creator of several innovative media properties and live events.
