Alex Velez-Green is Senior Advisor to the Vice President for National Security and Foreign Policy at The Heritage Foundation. His analysis focuses on defense, deterrence, and alliance management in the Indo-Pacific, Europe, and the Middle East. Velez-Green previously served as National Security Advisor to U.S. Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO). In this capacity, he staffed Senator Hawley on the Armed Services Committee.He also advised on matters related to strengthening deterrence against China, including U.S. conventional and nuclear force structure and posture, Taiwanese defense requirements, and the impact of U.S. military activities in Europe and the Middle East on America’s ability to deter or fight effectively in a Taiwan contingency.Performance of these duties involved regular engagements with the National Security Council, Department of Defense, State Department, members of the Intelligence Community, and foreign governments. Velez-Green also traveled regularly to the Indo-Pacific, where he led engagements with U.S. Indo-Pacific Command and assigned forces in Hawaii, Alaska, Washington, California, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, the Marshall Islands, and other locations. Velez-Green also routinely collaborated with committee staff and personal offices in the Senate and House of Representatives to advance the Senator’s priorities, including bipartisan and bicameral legislation to provide U.S. security assistance to Taiwan on a conditional basis. Prior to the Senate, Velez-Green served as a Defense Strategy and Policy Analyst at Systems Planning and Analysis, Inc., where his work focused on nuclear and conventional deterrence in the Indo-Pacific and Europe. Velez-Green also previously held roles at the Center for a New American Security, where his research focused on the impact of emerging technologies on U.S.-Russian strategic stability. Velez-Green has published articles in The Washington Post, War on the Rocks, The National Interest, National Review, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Russia Matters, and Lawfare, among others. He speaks regularly at conferences in the United States, Europe, and Asia, and has traveled widely, including backpacking from Cairo to Cape Town. Velez-Green graduated cum laude from Harvard College.
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Episode 326
Alex Velez-Green
Could America Lose a War Against China Over Taiwan? | Alex Velez-Green
Alex Velez-Green is Senior Advisor to the Vice President for National Security and Foreign Policy at The Heritage Foundation. His analysis focuses on defense, deterrence, and alliance management in the Indo-Pacific, Europe, and the Middle East. Velez-Green previously served as National Security Advisor to U.S. Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO). In this capacity, he staffed Senator Hawley on the Armed Services Committee.He also advised on matters related to strengthening deterrence against China, including U.S. conventional and nuclear force structure and posture, Taiwanese defense requirements, and the impact of U.S. military activities in Europe and the Middle East on America’s ability to deter or fight effectively in a Taiwan contingency.Performance of these duties involved regular engagements with the National Security Council, Department of Defense, State Department, members of the Intelligence Community, and foreign governments. Velez-Green also traveled regularly to the Indo-Pacific, where he led engagements with U.S. Indo-Pacific Command and assigned forces in Hawaii, Alaska, Washington, California, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, the Marshall Islands, and other locations. Velez-Green also routinely collaborated with committee staff and personal offices in the Senate and House of Representatives to advance the Senator’s priorities, including bipartisan and bicameral legislation to provide U.S. security assistance to Taiwan on a conditional basis. Prior to the Senate, Velez-Green served as a Defense Strategy and Policy Analyst at Systems Planning and Analysis, Inc., where his work focused on nuclear and conventional deterrence in the Indo-Pacific and Europe. Velez-Green also previously held roles at the Center for a New American Security, where his research focused on the impact of emerging technologies on U.S.-Russian strategic stability. Velez-Green has published articles in The Washington Post, War on the Rocks, The National Interest, National Review, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Russia Matters, and Lawfare, among others. He speaks regularly at conferences in the United States, Europe, and Asia, and has traveled widely, including backpacking from Cairo to Cape Town. Velez-Green graduated cum laude from Harvard College.
In Episode 326 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Alex Velez-Green, the fmr. National Security Advisor to U.S. Senator Josh Hawley, who helped staff the senator on the Armed Services Committee and advised him on matters related to strengthening deterrence against China, including U.S. conventional and nuclear force structure and posture.
Alex and Demetri discuss the perilous situation that the U.S. now finds itself in in the Pacific, how it got here, and what is required to ready the U.S. military for a war against China in the next few years, and if we are lucky, deter it altogether.
The first hour of their conversation is dedicated to a discussion about the serious risks that the United States military currently faces in the pacific and why there is a real chance that the People’s Liberation Army will be able to defeat U.S. forces in a fight over Taiwan. This includes a discussion about Chinese intentions and the advancements that China’s military has made in the last several years, the consequences of losing a confrontation with China over Taiwan, and America’s ability to contain China once it has broken through the first island chain.
In the second hour, Velez-Green and Kofinas assess the state of America’s defense industrial base, what is being done to restock critical weapon systems and munitions, and how long it will take before the U.S. can feel confident in its ability to sustain a protracted war against China. In this context, they also discuss trade-offs between continuing to provide arms to Ukraine and delivering those same weapons systems and munitions to Taiwan in an effort to deter a Chinese invasion. They end the episode by reflecting on the legacy of foreign policy failures that have led to this moment, how we got here, and what needs to happen in order for the United States to prevail in what is likely to be the greatest national challenge the nation has faced since World War II.
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Alex Velez-Green is Senior Advisor to the Vice President for National Security and Foreign Policy at The Heritage Foundation. His analysis focuses on defense, deterrence, and alliance management in the Indo-Pacific, Europe, and the Middle East. Velez-Green previously served as National Security Advisor to U.S. Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO). In this capacity, he staffed Senator Hawley on the Armed Services Committee.He also advised on matters related to strengthening deterrence against China, including U.S. conventional and nuclear force structure and posture, Taiwanese defense requirements, and the impact of U.S. military activities in Europe and the Middle East on America’s ability to deter or fight effectively in a Taiwan contingency.Performance of these duties involved regular engagements with the National Security Council, Department of Defense, State Department, members of the Intelligence Community, and foreign governments. Velez-Green also traveled regularly to the Indo-Pacific, where he led engagements with U.S. Indo-Pacific Command and assigned forces in Hawaii, Alaska, Washington, California, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, the Marshall Islands, and other locations. Velez-Green also routinely collaborated with committee staff and personal offices in the Senate and House of Representatives to advance the Senator’s priorities, including bipartisan and bicameral legislation to provide U.S. security assistance to Taiwan on a conditional basis. Prior to the Senate, Velez-Green served as a Defense Strategy and Policy Analyst at Systems Planning and Analysis, Inc., where his work focused on nuclear and conventional deterrence in the Indo-Pacific and Europe. Velez-Green also previously held roles at the Center for a New American Security, where his research focused on the impact of emerging technologies on U.S.-Russian strategic stability. Velez-Green has published articles in The Washington Post, War on the Rocks, The National Interest, National Review, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Russia Matters, and Lawfare, among others. He speaks regularly at conferences in the United States, Europe, and Asia, and has traveled widely, including backpacking from Cairo to Cape Town. Velez-Green graduated cum laude from Harvard College.
Demetri Kofinas is a media entrepreneur and financial analyst whose mission is to help uncover the hidden forces and pivotal patterns shaping our lives. His contrarian perspective and critical-thinking approach has helped hundreds of thousands of people make smarter, informed decisions. This same methodology has helped guide Demetri’s decision-making as an early-stage investor and as a creator of several innovative media properties and live events.
Demetri Kofinas is a media entrepreneur and financial analyst whose mission is to help uncover the hidden forces and pivotal patterns shaping our lives. His contrarian perspective and critical-thinking approach has helped hundreds of thousands of people make smarter, informed decisions. This same methodology has helped guide Demetri’s decision-making as an early-stage investor and as a creator of several innovative media properties and live events.
Demetri Kofinas is a media entrepreneur and financial analyst whose mission is to help uncover the hidden forces and pivotal patterns shaping our lives. His contrarian perspective and critical-thinking approach has helped hundreds of thousands of people make smarter, informed decisions. This same methodology has helped guide Demetri’s decision-making as an early-stage investor and as a creator of several innovative media properties and live events.
Demetri Kofinas is a media entrepreneur and financial analyst whose mission is to help uncover the hidden forces and pivotal patterns shaping our lives. His contrarian perspective and critical-thinking approach has helped hundreds of thousands of people make smarter, informed decisions. This same methodology has helped guide Demetri’s decision-making as an early-stage investor and as a creator of several innovative media properties and live events.
Demetri Kofinas is a media entrepreneur and financial analyst whose mission is to help uncover the hidden forces and pivotal patterns shaping our lives. His contrarian perspective and critical-thinking approach has helped hundreds of thousands of people make smarter, informed decisions. This same methodology has helped guide Demetri’s decision-making as an early-stage investor and as a creator of several innovative media properties and live events.
