
Episode 251
How to Trade the Great Rotation From Big Tech to Commodities | Tony Greer

Episode 251
Tony Greer
How to Trade the Great Rotation From Big Tech to Commodities | Tony Greer
summary
In Episode 251 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Tony Greer, the founder of TG Macro, an independent research firm that provides fundamental, technical, and behavioral analysis of global markets to institutional and non-institutional clients alike.
This conversation follows-up on a series of episodes we’ve published recently focused on the macro, political, and geopolitical economy, with an especially strong focus on commodities, currencies, and government policy. The goal with all of these episodes has been to help listeners develop a framework for thinking about some of the big-picture trends driving markets and the economy, with the ultimate goal of helping them gain the type of conviction needed in order to invest successfully in them.
Those who heard Demetri’s recent episode with Grant Williams know that he was able to use this framework to profitably exit long-held positions in risk-assets ahead of the recent market downturn and even rotated some of those profits into commodities, though as he has said countless times he did not allocate nearly enough because he lacked conviction. He didn’t know enough to feel confident in the Supercycle thesis that we laid out in our recent episode with Jeff Currie. He didn’t fuly appreciate the supply-side picture that the team at Doomberg has been writing about so presciently for the past year and that we spoke with them about during Doomberg’s recent appearance on Hidden Forces.
So what does one do now? What does one do if he or she is persuaded by the thesis that long-term, structural forces restricting the supply of key commodities will support persistently high prices even in the face of relatively weak demand, but doesn’t have conviction around what those prices could reasonably be, especially in the short-term ahead of a Fed tightening cycle?
This is why we’ve brought Tony Greer on the podcast. Tony’s specialty is trading commodities. He’s been doing it for 30 years and we’re going to rely on his experience to work through exactly the type of dilemma that has been laid out here and which many of you may also be struggling with.
You can access the full episode, transcript, and intelligence report to this week’s conversation by going directly to the episode page on our website and clicking on “premium extras.” All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.
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Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
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Episode Recorded on 05/17/2022
bio
Tony Greer
is the founder of TG Macro, an independent research firm that provides fundamental, technical, and behavioral analysis of global markets to a group of institutional clients and a personal subscriber base. After graduating from Cornell University in 1990, Tony Greer began his trading career in the foreign exchange market for Sumitomo Bank and UBS. He joined the J. Aron division of Goldman Sachs in 1994, where he learned the rigor of trading large commodity books. Tony left the commodity desk at Goldman Sachs to launch his own equity trading operation in 2000, which surfed the dot.com crash for two years. Tony then began a career as an equity sales trader, educating his clients in the natural resources space. Tony started his own independent market analysis company, TG Macro, and then launched the Morning Navigator newsletter on election day, 2016, with the view that the world was about to change dramatically. The Morning Navigator is now distributed to over 800 professionals worldwide.
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Inscite autem medicinae et gubernationis ultimum cum ultimo sapientiae comparatur. Erat enim Polemonis. Levatio igitur vitiorum magna fit in iis, qui habent ad virtutem progressionis aliquantum. Quorum altera prosunt, nocent altera.
Faceres tu quidem, Torquate, haec omnia; Terram, mihi crede, ea lanx et maria deprimet. Si de re disceptari oportet, nulla mihi tecum, Cato, potest esse dissensio. Haec quo modo conveniant, non sane intellego. Quae in controversiam veniunt, de iis, si placet, disseramus. Cur igitur, inquam, res tam dissimiles eodem nomine appellas? Sint modo partes vitae beatae. Quid, si etiam iucunda memoria est praeteritorum malorum? Tollitur beneficium, tollitur gratia, quae sunt vincla concordiae. Sit ista in Graecorum levitate perversitas, qui maledictis insectantur eos, a quibus de veritate dissentiunt.
Omnes enim iucundum motum, quo sensus hilaretur. Traditur, inquit, ab Epicuro ratio neglegendi doloris. Quaesita enim virtus est, non quae relinqueret naturam, sed quae tueretur. Gloriosa ostentatio in constituendo summo bono. Ergo hoc quidem apparet, nos ad agendum esse natos. Quod quidem iam fit etiam in Academia. Sed id ne cogitari quidem potest quale sit, ut non repugnet ipsum sibi. Sapiens autem semper beatus est et est aliquando in dolore;
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Si quicquam extra virtutem habeatur in bonis. Atque hoc loco similitudines eas, quibus illi uti solent, dissimillimas proferebas. Quas enim kakaw Graeci appellant, vitia malo quam malitias nominare. Item de contrariis, a quibus ad genera formasque generum venerunt. Si qua in iis corrigere voluit, deteriora fecit. Sed in rebus apertissimis nimium longi sumus. Quid enim de amicitia statueris utilitatis causa expetenda vides.
Aliena dixit in physicis nec ea ipsa, quae tibi probarentur; Primum in nostrane potestate est, quid meminerimus? Sed ea mala virtuti magnitudine obruebantur. Quis istum dolorem timet? Qua igitur re ab deo vincitur, si aeternitate non vincitur? Nunc omni virtuti vitium contrario nomine opponitur.
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intelligence report
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Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Iam doloris medicamenta illa Epicurea tamquam de narthecio proment: Si gravis, brevis; Nec vero sum nescius esse utilitatem in historia, non modo voluptatem. Non enim solum Torquatus dixit quid sentiret, sed etiam cur. Duo Reges: constructio interrete. An quod ita callida est, ut optime possit architectari voluptates? Ergo omni animali illud, quod appetiti positum est in eo, quod naturae est accommodatum. Hoc ne statuam quidem dicturam pater aiebat, si loqui posset. Qua igitur re ab deo vincitur, si aeternitate non vincitur?
Zenonis est, inquam, hoc Stoici. Ita cum ea volunt retinere, quae superiori sententiae conveniunt, in Aristonem incidunt; Quodcumque in mentem incideret, et quodcumque tamquam occurreret. Traditur, inquit, ab Epicuro ratio neglegendi doloris. Quem Tiberina descensio festo illo die tanto gaudio affecit, quanto L.
Satisne ergo pudori consulat, si quis sine teste libidini pareat? Cum sciret confestim esse moriendum eamque mortem ardentiore studio peteret, quam Epicurus voluptatem petendam putat. Nam si amitti vita beata potest, beata esse non potest. Certe nihil nisi quod possit ipsum propter se iure laudari.
Idemque diviserunt naturam hominis in animum et corpus. Aliter enim nosmet ipsos nosse non possumus. Sic, et quidem diligentius saepiusque ista loquemur inter nos agemusque communiter. Itaque dicunt nec dubitant: mihi sic usus est, tibi ut opus est facto, fac. Ergo illi intellegunt quid Epicurus dicat, ego non intellego? Tu autem negas fortem esse quemquam posse, qui dolorem malum putet. Non est enim vitium in oratione solum, sed etiam in moribus. Et homini, qui ceteris animantibus plurimum praestat, praecipue a natura nihil datum esse dicemus? Ille vero, si insipiens-quo certe, quoniam tyrannus -, numquam beatus;
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Tum ille: Tu autem cum ipse tantum librorum habeas, quos hic tandem requiris? Atqui iste locus est, Piso, tibi etiam atque etiam confirmandus, inquam; Eadem nunc mea adversum te oratio est. Quid censes in Latino fore? Quicquid porro animo cernimus, id omne oritur a sensibus;
Nonne videmus quanta perturbatio rerum omnium consequatur, quanta confusio? Conclusum est enim contra Cyrenaicos satis acute, nihil ad Epicurum. Sequitur disserendi ratio cognitioque naturae; Illa tamen simplicia, vestra versuta. Hinc ceteri particulas arripere conati suam quisque videro voluit afferre sententiam. Quo plebiscito decreta a senatu est consuli quaestio Cn. Et ille ridens: Video, inquit, quid agas; Addidisti ad extremum etiam indoctum fuisse.
Cupit enim dícere nihil posse ad beatam vitam deesse sapienti. Innumerabilia dici possunt in hanc sententiam, sed non necesse est. Perturbationes autem nulla naturae vi commoventur, omniaque ea sunt opiniones ac iudicia levitatis. Num igitur utiliorem tibi hunc Triarium putas esse posse, quam si tua sint Puteolis granaria? Non quam nostram quidem, inquit Pomponius iocans; Quo studio Aristophanem putamus aetatem in litteris duxisse?