Tony Greer is the founder of TG Macro, an independent research firm that provides fundamental, technical, and behavioral analysis of global markets to a group of institutional clients and a personal subscriber base. After graduating from Cornell University in 1990, Tony Greer began his trading career in the foreign exchange market for Sumitomo Bank and UBS. He joined the J. Aron division of Goldman Sachs in 1994, where he learned the rigor of trading large commodity books. Tony left the commodity desk at Goldman Sachs to launch his own equity trading operation in 2000, which surfed the dot.com crash for two years. Tony then began a career as an equity sales trader, educating his clients in the natural resources space. Tony started his own independent market analysis company, TG Macro, and then launched the Morning Navigator newsletter on election day, 2016, with the view that the world was about to change dramatically. The Morning Navigator is now distributed to over 800 professionals worldwide.
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Episode 251
Tony Greer
How to Trade the Great Rotation From Big Tech to Commodities | Tony Greer
Tony Greer is the founder of TG Macro, an independent research firm that provides fundamental, technical, and behavioral analysis of global markets to a group of institutional clients and a personal subscriber base. After graduating from Cornell University in 1990, Tony Greer began his trading career in the foreign exchange market for Sumitomo Bank and UBS. He joined the J. Aron division of Goldman Sachs in 1994, where he learned the rigor of trading large commodity books. Tony left the commodity desk at Goldman Sachs to launch his own equity trading operation in 2000, which surfed the dot.com crash for two years. Tony then began a career as an equity sales trader, educating his clients in the natural resources space. Tony started his own independent market analysis company, TG Macro, and then launched the Morning Navigator newsletter on election day, 2016, with the view that the world was about to change dramatically. The Morning Navigator is now distributed to over 800 professionals worldwide.
In Episode 251 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Tony Greer, the founder of TG Macro, an independent research firm that provides fundamental, technical, and behavioral analysis of global markets to institutional and non-institutional clients alike.
This conversation follows-up on a series of episodes we’ve published recently focused on the macro, political, and geopolitical economy, with an especially strong focus on commodities, currencies, and government policy. The goal with all of these episodes has been to help listeners develop a framework for thinking about some of the big-picture trends driving markets and the economy, with the ultimate goal of helping them gain the type of conviction needed in order to invest successfully in them.
Those who heard Demetri’s recent episode with Grant Williams know that he was able to use this framework to profitably exit long-held positions in risk-assets ahead of the recent market downturn and even rotated some of those profits into commodities, though as he has said countless times he did not allocate nearly enough because he lacked conviction. He didn’t know enough to feel confident in the Supercycle thesis that we laid out in our recent episode with Jeff Currie. He didn’t fuly appreciate the supply-side picture that the team at Doomberg has been writing about so presciently for the past year and that we spoke with them about during Doomberg’s recent appearance on Hidden Forces.
So what does one do now? What does one do if he or she is persuaded by the thesis that long-term, structural forces restricting the supply of key commodities will support persistently high prices even in the face of relatively weak demand, but doesn’t have conviction around what those prices could reasonably be, especially in the short-term ahead of a Fed tightening cycle?
This is why we’ve brought Tony Greer on the podcast. Tony’s specialty is trading commodities. He’s been doing it for 30 years and we’re going to rely on his experience to work through exactly the type of dilemma that has been laid out here and which many of you may also be struggling with.
You can access the full episode, transcript, and intelligence report to this week’s conversation by going directly to the episode page on our website and clicking on “premium extras.” All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.
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is the founder of TG Macro, an independent research firm that provides fundamental, technical, and behavioral analysis of global markets to a group of institutional clients and a personal subscriber base. After graduating from Cornell University in 1990, Tony Greer began his trading career in the foreign exchange market for Sumitomo Bank and UBS. He joined the J. Aron division of Goldman Sachs in 1994, where he learned the rigor of trading large commodity books. Tony left the commodity desk at Goldman Sachs to launch his own equity trading operation in 2000, which surfed the dot.com crash for two years. Tony then began a career as an equity sales trader, educating his clients in the natural resources space. Tony started his own independent market analysis company, TG Macro, and then launched the Morning Navigator newsletter on election day, 2016, with the view that the world was about to change dramatically. The Morning Navigator is now distributed to over 800 professionals worldwide.
Demetri Kofinas is a media entrepreneur and financial analyst whose mission is to help uncover the hidden forces and pivotal patterns shaping our lives. His contrarian perspective and critical-thinking approach has helped hundreds of thousands of people make smarter, informed decisions. This same methodology has helped guide Demetri’s decision-making as an early-stage investor and as a creator of several innovative media properties and live events.
Demetri Kofinas is a media entrepreneur and financial analyst whose mission is to help uncover the hidden forces and pivotal patterns shaping our lives. His contrarian perspective and critical-thinking approach has helped hundreds of thousands of people make smarter, informed decisions. This same methodology has helped guide Demetri’s decision-making as an early-stage investor and as a creator of several innovative media properties and live events.
Demetri Kofinas is a media entrepreneur and financial analyst whose mission is to help uncover the hidden forces and pivotal patterns shaping our lives. His contrarian perspective and critical-thinking approach has helped hundreds of thousands of people make smarter, informed decisions. This same methodology has helped guide Demetri’s decision-making as an early-stage investor and as a creator of several innovative media properties and live events.
Demetri Kofinas is a media entrepreneur and financial analyst whose mission is to help uncover the hidden forces and pivotal patterns shaping our lives. His contrarian perspective and critical-thinking approach has helped hundreds of thousands of people make smarter, informed decisions. This same methodology has helped guide Demetri’s decision-making as an early-stage investor and as a creator of several innovative media properties and live events.
Demetri Kofinas is a media entrepreneur and financial analyst whose mission is to help uncover the hidden forces and pivotal patterns shaping our lives. His contrarian perspective and critical-thinking approach has helped hundreds of thousands of people make smarter, informed decisions. This same methodology has helped guide Demetri’s decision-making as an early-stage investor and as a creator of several innovative media properties and live events.
