Eric Basmajian is an economic cycle analyst and the Founder of EPB Macro Research, an economics-based research firm focusing on inflection points in economic growth and the impact on asset prices. Eric works with major institutional investors as well as high-net-worth individual investors, and his research has been featured across major financial media, including Yahoo Finance, MarketWatch, US News, Blockworks, Real Vision, and Seeking Alpha. Prior to EPB Macro Research, Eric worked on the buy-side of the financial sector as an analyst at Panorama Partners, a quantitative hedge fund specializing in scanning for mispriced equity derivatives. Eric holds a bachelor’s degree in economics from New York University.
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Episode 263
Eric Basmajian
A Recession, More Inflation, or Both? | Eric Basmajian
Eric Basmajian is an economic cycle analyst and the Founder of EPB Macro Research, an economics-based research firm focusing on inflection points in economic growth and the impact on asset prices. Eric works with major institutional investors as well as high-net-worth individual investors, and his research has been featured across major financial media, including Yahoo Finance, MarketWatch, US News, Blockworks, Real Vision, and Seeking Alpha. Prior to EPB Macro Research, Eric worked on the buy-side of the financial sector as an analyst at Panorama Partners, a quantitative hedge fund specializing in scanning for mispriced equity derivatives. Eric holds a bachelor’s degree in economics from New York University.
In Episode 263 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Eric Basmajian. Eric is an economic cycle analyst and the Founder of EPB Macro Research, an economics-based research firm focusing on inflection points in economic growth and the impact on asset prices. His research has been featured across major financial media outlets and he’s been kind enough to provide a sample of his latest cyclical trends monthly update report for premium subscribers to our super nerd tier that you can get through the “additional file” tab above this summary section.
This conversation is the latest in a series of episodes on markets and investing, with an especially strong focus this time on the macro economy, and in particular, the secular and cyclical trends in the rate of growth and inflation. Secular forces are things like demographics, debt-to-GDP levels, trends in globalization, and the regular and predictable doubling in computing power commonly referred to as Moore’s Law—long-term trends in other words that remain in place through multiple economic cycles. Cyclical trends on the other hand are the 6-18 month fluctuations in growth determined by things like income, production, consumption, and employment. We can anticipate changes in the direction and magnitude of these trends by relying on a variety of what are known as leading as well as coincident economic indicators, things you’ve probably heard of before like building permits, new manufacturing orders, non-farm payrolls, personal consumption, industrial production, etc. Understanding where you are in an economic cycle and what the long-term, secular forces are that are pulling you or pushing you in any particular direction is as important to investors as the weather and the ocean currents are to the navigator of a sailboat. They inform the allocation strategies and performance expectations for various asset classes, business models, and policy choices over time.
Today’s conversation will expose you to a framework for thinking about the macroeconomy that is empirical, data-oriented, and very much based in reality—one that you can use to forecast major economic inflection points and their resulting impact on asset prices, a valuable tool for anyone trying to manage his or her portfolio or make informed investment decisions.
You can access the full episode, transcript, and intelligence report to this week’s conversation through this episode page by clicking on “premium extras.” All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.
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Eric Basmajian is an economic cycle analyst and the Founder of EPB Macro Research, an economics-based research firm focusing on inflection points in economic growth and the impact on asset prices. Eric works with major institutional investors as well as high-net-worth individual investors, and his research has been featured across major financial media, including Yahoo Finance, MarketWatch, US News, Blockworks, Real Vision, and Seeking Alpha. Prior to EPB Macro Research, Eric worked on the buy-side of the financial sector as an analyst at Panorama Partners, a quantitative hedge fund specializing in scanning for mispriced equity derivatives. Eric holds a bachelor’s degree in economics from New York University.
Demetri Kofinas is a media entrepreneur and financial analyst whose mission is to help uncover the hidden forces and pivotal patterns shaping our lives. His contrarian perspective and critical-thinking approach has helped hundreds of thousands of people make smarter, informed decisions. This same methodology has helped guide Demetri’s decision-making as an early-stage investor and as a creator of several innovative media properties and live events.
Demetri Kofinas is a media entrepreneur and financial analyst whose mission is to help uncover the hidden forces and pivotal patterns shaping our lives. His contrarian perspective and critical-thinking approach has helped hundreds of thousands of people make smarter, informed decisions. This same methodology has helped guide Demetri’s decision-making as an early-stage investor and as a creator of several innovative media properties and live events.
Demetri Kofinas is a media entrepreneur and financial analyst whose mission is to help uncover the hidden forces and pivotal patterns shaping our lives. His contrarian perspective and critical-thinking approach has helped hundreds of thousands of people make smarter, informed decisions. This same methodology has helped guide Demetri’s decision-making as an early-stage investor and as a creator of several innovative media properties and live events.
Demetri Kofinas is a media entrepreneur and financial analyst whose mission is to help uncover the hidden forces and pivotal patterns shaping our lives. His contrarian perspective and critical-thinking approach has helped hundreds of thousands of people make smarter, informed decisions. This same methodology has helped guide Demetri’s decision-making as an early-stage investor and as a creator of several innovative media properties and live events.
Demetri Kofinas is a media entrepreneur and financial analyst whose mission is to help uncover the hidden forces and pivotal patterns shaping our lives. His contrarian perspective and critical-thinking approach has helped hundreds of thousands of people make smarter, informed decisions. This same methodology has helped guide Demetri’s decision-making as an early-stage investor and as a creator of several innovative media properties and live events.
