Episode 106
Joshua Landis | US Withdrawal and the End of the Rules-Based Global Order
Episode 106
Joshua Landis
Joshua Landis | US Withdrawal and the End of the Rules-Based Global Order
summary
In this week’s episode of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Joshua Landis, a Middle East scholar and Syria expert about the disorderly withdrawal of American forces from Syria and the larger shift in the balance of power that we are seeing as nations scramble to remake alliances in the wake of America’s absence.
It seems that what we’ve seen transpire in the Middle East during the past week is a symptom of a much larger trend: the deterioration of the rules-based international order, the fulcrum around which the world has turned for three generations—the entirety of living memory. It is the break-down of national borders, in many cases borders that have been artificially constructed and maintained by the credible threat of American military power. As America begins its long-anticipated withdrawal from the world stage, others will rise to take her place. It was probably naive to imagine that this could happen in a managed way. Perhaps it was always destined to be messy. As much as Trump’s detractors wish to blame him for the mess in Syria, the truth is, he is only an accelerant. He isn’t responsible for assembling the reactants.
The forces currently being unleashed in what was once Northern Syria remain contained within the Greater Middle East, but Turkey’s involvement creates the potential for spillover into the Balkans and southern Europe at some indeterminate date in the future. Turkey has been flexing its geopolitical muscles with Greece for years. It is no longer inconceivable to imagine that its membership in NATO will prove to be an insufficient deterrent for curbing Turkish military aggression or the expansionary ambitions of Erdoğan in the Aegean. Erdoğan seems to be staking his political career on the vision of a more assertive and expansionary Turkish foreign policy. Turkey remains strategically indispensable to the US & NATO. If he expands Turkey’s current activities in Cypriot waters, it isn’t clear who will stop him.
It’s a cliché, but all bets do seem to be off. If the nations of the world decide that America can no longer guarantee their security or maintain the integrity of their borders, we may start to see a rapid reorganization of the international order along radically different lines. It’s hard to believe, but Russia has played its cards better than any one of the major powers. It has capitalized on (and in some cases stoked) the chaos of political dysfunction both within and across the transatlantic relationship. It seems to have positioned itself as the new dance partner for any country suddenly in need of an escort. Its economy may be half the size of California’s, but this has not stopped Putin from rebranding the Russian Federation as “the new neighborhood muscle,” that will have your back when the US doesn’t.
America’s leaders have exhibited remarkable incompetence in the area of foreign policy, displaying only flickering instances of humility and foresight since being thrust upon the world stage as the new global hegemon and the only standing survivor of the Cold War. For years, we’ve been asking ourselves what this new world is going to look like, a world without America guaranteeing security for the liberal, democratic order. The events currently transpiring in Syria may be giving us our first real glimpse of what that world will look like. It’s chaotic. It’s authoritarian. And it’s more violent. This is the new backdrop for which the circus that is American politics will play out in 2020. Democratic candidates who have staked their candidacies on demonizing Donald Trump, while avoiding addressing the forces that brought him to office in the first place risk being totally blindsided by even lower voter turnout and a re-election of Donald Trump in 2020. If that happens, American foreign policy will likely go into crisis. It’s really unclear at that point what would happen. The proverbial “Deep State” has resisted his candidacy from the beginning but has not gone so far as to overthrow his popular mandate. Should he be re-elected, what will Washington’s elite, its intelligence agencies and wealthy benefactors do? Will they sit by and watch while Trump dismantles what is left of their dysfunctional experiment in American empire? Or, will they impeach him? He certainly hasn’t made it difficult with his actions, but they no longer have the credibility to do it without further sacrificing their own legitimacy.
This is truly uncharted waters. We should all pray that a new consensus can emerge in the next twelve months that will bring enough of the country together to stop the bleeding, but it is not clear from what source this unanimity will spring.
This week’s rundown is a 16-page compilation of all the information (including pictures and links material referenced during the episode) compiled by Demetri ahead of his recording with Joshua Landis. You can access this document, along with a transcript to this week’s episode through the Hidden Forces Supercast Page. All subscribers also gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily be added to your favorite podcast application.
Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
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bio
Joshua Landis is Director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma and Associate Professor of Middle East studies at the University of Oklahoma’s Department of International and Area Studies. He writes “Syria Comment,” a daily newsletter on Syrian politics that attracts some 3,000 readers a day. It is widely read by officials in Washington, Europe, and Syria. Dr. Landis regularly travels to Washington DC to consult with the State Department and other government agencies. He is a frequent analyst on TV and radio and has appeared on the Jim Lehrer News Hour, Charlie Rose Show, CNN, Fox News, and been quoted widely in the NY Times, WSJ, Washington Post, LA Times, and comments frequently for NPR and BBC radio. He has spoken at the Brookings Institute, USIP, Middle East Institute, and Council on Foreign Relations.
He was educated at Princeton (PhD), Harvard (MA), and Swarthmore (BA). He has lived over 14 years in the Middle East; having been brought up in Beirut, he returned to the region in the 1980s to teach in Beirut and study at universities in Damascus, Cairo, and Istanbul. Most recently, he spent 2005 in Syria as a Senior Fulbright Research Fellow and lived several months in Damascus in 2007. He teaches: Political Islam, International Relations in the Middle East, Islam, The Modern Middle East, Culture and Society in the Middle East, the US in the Middle East and other courses.
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Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Magni enim aestimabat pecuniam non modo non contra leges, sed etiam legibus partam. Vos autem cum perspicuis dubia debeatis illustrare, dubiis perspicua conamini tollere. Negat esse eam, inquit, propter se expetendam. Sed vobis voluptatum perceptarum recordatio vitam beatam facit, et quidem corpore perceptarum. Immo alio genere; Duo Reges: constructio interrete. An eum discere ea mavis, quae cum plane perdidiceriti nihil sciat? Ut in geometria, prima si dederis, danda sunt omnia.
Addidisti ad extremum etiam indoctum fuisse. An est aliquid, quod te sua sponte delectet? Nam aliquando posse recte fieri dicunt nulla expectata nec quaesita voluptate. Ut placet, inquit, etsi enim illud erat aptius, aequum cuique concedere. Duae sunt enim res quoque, ne tu verba solum putes. Quamquam te quidem video minime esse deterritum. Theophrasti igitur, inquit, tibi liber ille placet de beata vita? Verba tu fingas et ea dicas, quae non sentias? Sed virtutem ipsam inchoavit, nihil amplius. Nam ista vestra: Si gravis, brevis;
Quae hic rei publicae vulnera inponebat, eadem ille sanabat. Ita graviter et severe voluptatem secrevit a bono. Equidem, sed audistine modo de Carneade? Quae hic rei publicae vulnera inponebat, eadem ille sanabat. Quae cum essent dicta, discessimus. Et quidem Arcesilas tuus, etsi fuit in disserendo pertinacior, tamen noster fuit; Huic mori optimum esse propter desperationem sapientiae, illi propter spem vivere.
Tecum optime, deinde etiam cum mediocri amico. Hoc Hieronymus summum bonum esse dixit. Non risu potius quam oratione eiciendum? Quod idem cum vestri faciant, non satis magnam tribuunt inventoribus gratiam.
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Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Haec et tu ita posuisti, et verba vestra sunt. Ampulla enim sit necne sit, quis non iure optimo irrideatur, si laboret? Sed haec quidem liberius ab eo dicuntur et saepius. Duo Reges: constructio interrete. Causa autem fuit huc veniendi ut quosdam hinc libros promerem. Respondent extrema primis, media utrisque, omnia omnibus. Sed ne, dum huic obsequor, vobis molestus sim. Tanta vis admonitionis inest in locis;
Virtutibus igitur rectissime mihi videris et ad consuetudinem nostrae orationis vitia posuisse contraria. Et quidem, Cato, hanc totam copiam iam Lucullo nostro notam esse oportebit; Conclusum est enim contra Cyrenaicos satis acute, nihil ad Epicurum. Facit enim ille duo seiuncta ultima bonorum, quae ut essent vera, coniungi debuerunt; Quod mihi quidem visus est, cum sciret, velle tamen confitentem audire Torquatum. Nunc de hominis summo bono quaeritur; Haec bene dicuntur, nec ego repugno, sed inter sese ipsa pugnant. Scaevola tribunus plebis ferret ad plebem vellentne de ea re quaeri.
Itaque primos congressus copulationesque et consuetudinum instituendarum voluntates fieri propter voluptatem; Saepe ab Aristotele, a Theophrasto mirabiliter est laudata per se ipsa rerum scientia;
Itaque primos congressus copulationesque et consuetudinum instituendarum voluntates fieri propter voluptatem; Quod praeceptum quia maius erat, quam ut ab homine videretur, idcirco assignatum est deo. Mihi vero, inquit, placet agi subtilius et, ut ipse dixisti, pressius. Is ita vivebat, ut nulla tam exquisita posset inveniri voluptas, qua non abundaret. Nunc haec primum fortasse audientis servire debemus. Quaero igitur, quo modo hae tantae commendationes a natura profectae subito a sapientia relictae sint.
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Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Ut in geometria, prima si dederis, danda sunt omnia. Indicant pueri, in quibus ut in speculis natura cernitur. Quid, de quo nulla dissensio est? Haec dicuntur fortasse ieiunius; Cuius ad naturam apta ratio vera illa et summa lex a philosophis dicitur. Quid igitur dubitamus in tota eius natura quaerere quid sit effectum? Cum id fugiunt, re eadem defendunt, quae Peripatetici, verba. Duo Reges: constructio interrete. Sin tantum modo ad indicia veteris memoriae cognoscenda, curiosorum. Non enim solum Torquatus dixit quid sentiret, sed etiam cur. Sed nimis multa. Quid, si etiam iucunda memoria est praeteritorum malorum?
At enim hic etiam dolore. Ergo illi intellegunt quid Epicurus dicat, ego non intellego? Quodcumque in mentem incideret, et quodcumque tamquam occurreret. Alterum significari idem, ut si diceretur, officia media omnia aut pleraque servantem vivere. Sed haec quidem liberius ab eo dicuntur et saepius. Philosophi autem in suis lectulis plerumque moriuntur.
Iam illud quale tandem est, bona praeterita non effluere sapienti, mala meminisse non oportere? Non enim iam stirpis bonum quaeret, sed animalis. Mihi enim satis est, ipsis non satis. Ab hoc autem quaedam non melius quam veteres, quaedam omnino relicta.
Faceres tu quidem, Torquate, haec omnia; Indicant pueri, in quibus ut in speculis natura cernitur. Tum mihi Piso: Quid ergo? Hic nihil fuit, quod quaereremus. Nulla erit controversia. Vide, quantum, inquam, fallare, Torquate. Ut aliquid scire se gaudeant? Vide, ne etiam menses! nisi forte eum dicis, qui, simul atque arripuit, interficit.
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Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Hoc dixerit potius Ennius: Nimium boni est, cui nihil est mali. Duo Reges: constructio interrete. Eadem nunc mea adversum te oratio est. Sin autem est in ea, quod quidam volunt, nihil impedit hanc nostram comprehensionem summi boni. His similes sunt omnes, qui virtuti student levantur vitiis, levantur erroribus, nisi forte censes Ti. Inde sermone vario sex illa a Dipylo stadia confecimus. Tu vero, inquam, ducas licet, si sequetur;
Cur ipse Pythagoras et Aegyptum lustravit et Persarum magos adiit? Quae in controversiam veniunt, de iis, si placet, disseramus. Iam id ipsum absurdum, maximum malum neglegi. Quem Tiberina descensio festo illo die tanto gaudio affecit, quanto L. Quod idem cum vestri faciant, non satis magnam tribuunt inventoribus gratiam. Hinc ceteri particulas arripere conati suam quisque videro voluit afferre sententiam.
Tum Quintus: Est plane, Piso, ut dicis, inquit. Alterum significari idem, ut si diceretur, officia media omnia aut pleraque servantem vivere. At quicum ioca seria, ut dicitur, quicum arcana, quicum occulta omnia? Sed quid ages tandem, si utilitas ab amicitia, ut fit saepe, defecerit? Fatebuntur Stoici haec omnia dicta esse praeclare, neque eam causam Zenoni desciscendi fuisse. Quamquam tu hanc copiosiorem etiam soles dicere.
Si stante, hoc natura videlicet vult, salvam esse se, quod concedimus; Dic in quovis conventu te omnia facere, ne doleas. Quippe: habes enim a rhetoribus; Eadem nunc mea adversum te oratio est. Atqui, inquam, Cato, si istud optinueris, traducas me ad te totum licebit. An hoc usque quaque, aliter in vita? Illum mallem levares, quo optimum atque humanissimum virum, Cn. Tu vero, inquam, ducas licet, si sequetur;