
Episode 240
Risks of Nuclear War & the Escalation Ladder | Jon Wolfsthal

Episode 240
Jon Wolfsthal
Risks of Nuclear War & the Escalation Ladder | Jon Wolfsthal
summary
In Episode 240 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Jon Wolfsthal, a veteran of the national security establishment who has served as both special assistant to the President of the United States for National Security Affairs and senior director at the National Security Council for arms control and nonproliferation. He’s been involved in almost every aspect of U.S. nuclear weapons, arms control, nonproliferation and security policy during his 30-years of working on issues of national security.
This episode is an exploration of US and Russian nuclear doctrine and decision-making protocols. It’s a conversation about how people and institutions in both the United States and Russia think about nuclear war and escalation management, acknowledging that nuclear war would be an unimaginable horror that no rational person would actually want.
Today’s conversation is meant to give you the information you need to wrap your arms around what may instinctively feel like a hopelessly scary and irrational situation so that you can develop the composure you need in order to deal with it.
You can access the full episode, transcript, and intelligence report to this week’s conversation by going directly to the episode page on our website and clicking on “premium extras.” All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.
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Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
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Episode Recorded on 03/21/2022
bio
Jon Wolfsthal is director of the Nuclear Crisis Group and a senior advisor to Global Zero. He is the former Special Assistant to the President of the United States for National Security Affairs and senior director at the National Security Council for arms control and nonproliferation. Before that, he was Deputy Director of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute for International Studies in Monterey. He joined Monterey after having been Special Advisor to Vice President Joseph R. Biden for nuclear security and nonproliferation and as a director for nonproliferation on the National Security Council from 2009-2012.
Mr. Wolfsthal has worked on nuclear weapons and arms control policy for over 30 years. During his time in Government he was involved in almost every aspect of U.S. nuclear weapons, arms control, nonproliferation and security policy. He helped negotiate and secure the ratification of the New START arms reduction agreement with the Russian Federation, and helped support the development of nuclear policy including through the 2010 Nuclear Posture Review and other elements of the Obama Administration’s security policies. He was previously a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and deputy director for nonproliferation at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He served in several capacities during the 1990s at the U.S Department of Energy, including an on-the-ground assignment in North Korea during 1995-96.
With Joseph Cirincione, he is the author of Deadly Arsenals: Tracking Weapons of Mass Destruction and a leading authority on nuclear weapons policy, regional proliferation, arms control and nuclear deterrence. His work has included extended assignments in Russia, North Korea and travel to Iran. He is the author of dozens of scholarly articles and op-eds and has appeared on or been quoted in most leading domestic and international news media outlets.
He is a member of the Science and Security Board of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists that helps annual set the doomsday clock and is also a Member of the Szilard Board of the Council for a Livable World.
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Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. In primo enim ortu inest teneritas ac mollitia quaedam, ut nec res videre optimas nec agere possint. Non quaero, quid dicat, sed quid convenienter possit rationi et sententiae suae dicere. Longum est enim ad omnia respondere, quae a te dicta sunt. Idemque diviserunt naturam hominis in animum et corpus. Rhetorice igitur, inquam, nos mavis quam dialectice disputare? Quid, de quo nulla dissensio est? Summus dolor plures dies manere non potest?
Certe non potest. Facile est hoc cernere in primis puerorum aetatulis. Urgent tamen et nihil remittunt.
Hos contra singulos dici est melius. Hic Speusippus, hic Xenocrates, hic eius auditor Polemo, cuius illa ipsa sessio fuit, quam videmus. Quae enim adhuc protulisti, popularia sunt, ego autem a te elegantiora desidero. Quamvis enim depravatae non sint, pravae tamen esse possunt. Sed ut iis bonis erigimur, quae expectamus, sic laetamur iis, quae recordamur. Quod eo liquidius faciet, si perspexerit rerum inter eas verborumne sit controversia. Fatebuntur Stoici haec omnia dicta esse praeclare, neque eam causam Zenoni desciscendi fuisse. An dolor longissimus quisque miserrimus, voluptatem non optabiliorem diuturnitas facit?
Duo Reges: constructio interrete. Negat enim summo bono afferre incrementum diem. Ergo opifex plus sibi proponet ad formarum quam civis excellens ad factorum pulchritudinem? Ab hoc autem quaedam non melius quam veteres, quaedam omnino relicta. Claudii libidini, qui tum erat summo ne imperio, dederetur. Quem ad modum quis ambulet, sedeat, qui ductus oris, qui vultus in quoque sit? Sed tamen intellego quid velit. Videsne ut, quibus summa est in voluptate, perspicuum sit quid iis faciendum sit aut non faciendum?
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Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Videamus animi partes, quarum est conspectus illustrior; Ita ceterorum sententiis semotis relinquitur non mihi cum Torquato, sed virtuti cum voluptate certatio. Gracchum patrem non beatiorem fuisse quam fillum, cum alter stabilire rem publicam studuerit, alter evertere. Prioris generis est docilitas, memoria; Ne amores quidem sanctos a sapiente alienos esse arbitrantur. Duo Reges: constructio interrete.
De hominibus dici non necesse est. Quid ergo attinet dicere: Nihil haberem, quod reprehenderem, si finitas cupiditates haberent? Quos quidem tibi studiose et diligenter tractandos magnopere censeo. Ut necesse sit omnium rerum, quae natura vigeant, similem esse finem, non eundem. Quod cum dixissent, ille contra. Haec bene dicuntur, nec ego repugno, sed inter sese ipsa pugnant.
Nec tamen ullo modo summum pecudis bonum et hominis idem mihi videri potest. Sed haec quidem liberius ab eo dicuntur et saepius. Utrum igitur tibi litteram videor an totas paginas commovere? Nihil sane. Ita multo sanguine profuso in laetitia et in victoria est mortuus.
Eam si varietatem diceres, intellegerem, ut etiam non dicente te intellego; An tu me de L. Ad eos igitur converte te, quaeso. Potius ergo illa dicantur: turpe esse, viri non esse debilitari dolore, frangi, succumbere. Sed haec quidem liberius ab eo dicuntur et saepius. Satis est tibi in te, satis in legibus, satis in mediocribus amicitiis praesidii. Ita graviter et severe voluptatem secrevit a bono. Consequatur summas voluptates non modo parvo, sed per me nihilo, si potest;
intelligence report
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Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Confecta res esset. Gloriosa ostentatio in constituendo summo bono. Istam voluptatem perpetuam quis potest praestare sapienti? Inquit, dasne adolescenti veniam? Duo Reges: constructio interrete. Nam et complectitur verbis, quod vult, et dicit plane, quod intellegam;
Ne amores quidem sanctos a sapiente alienos esse arbitrantur. Dempta enim aeternitate nihilo beatior Iuppiter quam Epicurus; At, si voluptas esset bonum, desideraret. Mihi quidem Homerus huius modi quiddam vidisse videatur in iis, quae de Sirenum cantibus finxerit. Ut nemo dubitet, eorum omnia officia quo spectare, quid sequi, quid fugere debeant? Solum praeterea formosum, solum liberum, solum civem, stultost; Iubet igitur nos Pythius Apollo noscere nosmet ipsos. Si mala non sunt, iacet omnis ratio Peripateticorum. In qua quid est boni praeter summam voluptatem, et eam sempiternam?
Eam tum adesse, cum dolor omnis absit; Quis animo aequo videt eum, quem inpure ac flagitiose putet vivere? Ita cum ea volunt retinere, quae superiori sententiae conveniunt, in Aristonem incidunt; Quae enim adhuc protulisti, popularia sunt, ego autem a te elegantiora desidero. Tu vero, inquam, ducas licet, si sequetur; Sequitur disserendi ratio cognitioque naturae; Hoc est non modo cor non habere, sed ne palatum quidem. Itaque hic ipse iam pridem est reiectus;
Collatio igitur ista te nihil iuvat. Tum Piso: Quoniam igitur aliquid omnes, quid Lucius noster? Quid est, quod ab ea absolvi et perfici debeat? Quarum ambarum rerum cum medicinam pollicetur, luxuriae licentiam pollicetur. Restinguet citius, si ardentem acceperit. Quod autem satis est, eo quicquid accessit, nimium est; Quid, quod homines infima fortuna, nulla spe rerum gerendarum, opifices denique delectantur historia? Hic ambiguo ludimur. Tu vero, inquam, ducas licet, si sequetur;
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Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Et si turpitudinem fugimus in statu et motu corporis, quid est cur pulchritudinem non sequamur? Idemque diviserunt naturam hominis in animum et corpus. Quod equidem non reprehendo; Non dolere, inquam, istud quam vim habeat postea videro; Ego quoque, inquit, didicerim libentius si quid attuleris, quam te reprehenderim. Duo Reges: constructio interrete. Primum in nostrane potestate est, quid meminerimus? Expressa vero in iis aetatibus, quae iam confirmatae sunt. Non semper, inquam;
Quem Tiberina descensio festo illo die tanto gaudio affecit, quanto L. Quem quidem vos, cum improbis poenam proponitis, inpetibilem facitis, cum sapientem semper boni plus habere vultis, tolerabilem. Vide, quantum, inquam, fallare, Torquate. Tu enim ista lenius, hic Stoicorum more nos vexat. Hoc loco discipulos quaerere videtur, ut, qui asoti esse velint, philosophi ante fiant. Sic enim censent, oportunitatis esse beate vivere. Cur igitur easdem res, inquam, Peripateticis dicentibus verbum nullum est, quod non intellegatur? Restatis igitur vos;
Quamquam tu hanc copiosiorem etiam soles dicere. Mihi quidem Antiochum, quem audis, satis belle videris attendere. Mihi, inquam, qui te id ipsum rogavi? Rationis enim perfectio est virtus; Qui enim voluptatem ipsam contemnunt, iis licet dicere se acupenserem maenae non anteponere. Quasi ego id curem, quid ille aiat aut neget. Cum id quoque, ut cupiebat, audivisset, evelli iussit eam, qua erat transfixus, hastam.
Qui non moveatur et offensione turpitudinis et comprobatione honestatis? Respondeat totidem verbis. Sed haec nihil sane ad rem; Mene ergo et Triarium dignos existimas, apud quos turpiter loquare? Ad eos igitur converte te, quaeso. An vero, inquit, quisquam potest probare, quod perceptfum, quod. Alterum significari idem, ut si diceretur, officia media omnia aut pleraque servantem vivere. Prodest, inquit, mihi eo esse animo. Nec vero sum nescius esse utilitatem in historia, non modo voluptatem. Post enim Chrysippum eum non sane est disputatum.