Diana Choyleva is a leading expert on China’s economy and politics. She is Chief Economist at Enodo Economics, an independent macroeconomic and political forecasting company she set up in 2016 to untangle complexity, challenge the consensus, and give pointers to the future by making sense of today. Enodo’s focus is China, one of the most misunderstood economies in the world, yet one of the most important to figure out. Diana has been covering China for over two decades and has written three books. In 2022, she co-authored ‘China’s Quest for Financial Self-reliance How Beijing Plans to Decouple from the Dollar-Based Global Trading and Financial System’; in 2011 ‘The American Phoenix – and Why China and Europe Will Struggle After the Coming Slump’; and in 2006 ‘The Bill from the China Shop – How Asia’s Savings Glut Threatens the World Economy’. For 16 years prior she worked at Lombard Street Research (now TS Lombard), most recently as their Chief Economist and Head of Research, setting the agenda for the firm’s team of economists and strategists while conducting her own global analysis. She joined LSR after completing her master’s degree in Economics at Warwick University in 2000 and became an executive director in 2005. Diana headed the firm’s UK Service from 2005 until 2009. Between 2010 and 2013 she was based in Hong Kong overseeing LSR’s expansion in Asia. Diana writes regular opinion pieces for the Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, Nikkei Asian Review, Foreign Policy etc. She has extensive global experience engaging with all manner of audiences and is a regular commentator on Bloomberg, the BBC, CNBC and others. Dinny McMahon is an expert on China’s financial system who has spent more than 15 years working on issues relating to China’s banks and capital markets. He is the author of ‘China’s Great Wall of Debt– Shadow Banks, Ghost Cities, Massive Loans, and the End of the Chinese Miracle,’ a bottom-up look at the mechanics of China’s political economy which he wrote while a fellow at the Wilson Center. He lived for 13 years in China, including three years studying Chinese and 10 years working as a financial journalist. His time as a reporter was spent in Beijing as the Wall Street Journal’s banking and finance correspondent, and in Shanghai with Dow Jones Newswires, for whom he covered China’s fledgling foreign exchange markets.
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Episode 286
Diana Choyleva & Dinny McMahon
China’s Plan to Decouple From the US Dollar | Diana Choyleva & Dinny McMahon
Diana Choyleva is a leading expert on China’s economy and politics. She is Chief Economist at Enodo Economics, an independent macroeconomic and political forecasting company she set up in 2016 to untangle complexity, challenge the consensus, and give pointers to the future by making sense of today. Enodo’s focus is China, one of the most misunderstood economies in the world, yet one of the most important to figure out. Diana has been covering China for over two decades and has written three books. In 2022, she co-authored ‘China’s Quest for Financial Self-reliance How Beijing Plans to Decouple from the Dollar-Based Global Trading and Financial System’; in 2011 ‘The American Phoenix – and Why China and Europe Will Struggle After the Coming Slump’; and in 2006 ‘The Bill from the China Shop – How Asia’s Savings Glut Threatens the World Economy’. For 16 years prior she worked at Lombard Street Research (now TS Lombard), most recently as their Chief Economist and Head of Research, setting the agenda for the firm’s team of economists and strategists while conducting her own global analysis. She joined LSR after completing her master’s degree in Economics at Warwick University in 2000 and became an executive director in 2005. Diana headed the firm’s UK Service from 2005 until 2009. Between 2010 and 2013 she was based in Hong Kong overseeing LSR’s expansion in Asia. Diana writes regular opinion pieces for the Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, Nikkei Asian Review, Foreign Policy etc. She has extensive global experience engaging with all manner of audiences and is a regular commentator on Bloomberg, the BBC, CNBC and others. Dinny McMahon is an expert on China’s financial system who has spent more than 15 years working on issues relating to China’s banks and capital markets. He is the author of ‘China’s Great Wall of Debt– Shadow Banks, Ghost Cities, Massive Loans, and the End of the Chinese Miracle,’ a bottom-up look at the mechanics of China’s political economy which he wrote while a fellow at the Wilson Center. He lived for 13 years in China, including three years studying Chinese and 10 years working as a financial journalist. His time as a reporter was spent in Beijing as the Wall Street Journal’s banking and finance correspondent, and in Shanghai with Dow Jones Newswires, for whom he covered China’s fledgling foreign exchange markets.
In Episode 286 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Diana Choyleva and Dinny McMahon, the co-authors of a comprehensive new report that examines China’s plans to decouple from the dollar-based global trading and financial system.
In this conversation, Choyleva and McMahon discuss Beijing’s rationale for wanting to transform the renminbi into an international currency, how the Chinese communist party is striving to make that transformation, why it might prove unattainable, and what progress we can expect them to make over the coming decade. Regardless of whether the yuan proves capable of challenging US Dollar hegemony, the changes that Beijing is pursuing will have a profound impact on the functioning of trade and financial markets around the world. These changes will create new challenges for governments, businesses, and investors. Understanding what these challenges are, the steps that Beijing will take to overcome them, and how policymakers in the US and Europe will respond is crucial to making any reliable forecast about the future of the international political economy.
If you want to listen to the second part of this conversation, which includes a discussion about the digital renminbi, how Beijing is trying to institutionalize yuan outflows and increase international demand for the yuan, and policy prescriptions for Western governments you can do that by becoming a subscriber to one of our three content tiers at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. All subscribers get access to our premium feed which you can listen to on your phone using your favorite podcast app just like you are listening to this episode right now.
If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of our Hidden Forces Genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, feel free to send an email to info@hiddenforces.io, and Demetri or someone else from our team will get right back to you.
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Diana Choyleva is a leading expert on China’s economy and politics. She is Chief Economist at Enodo Economics, an independent macroeconomic and political forecasting company she set up in 2016 to untangle complexity, challenge the consensus, and give pointers to the future by making sense of today. Enodo’s focus is China, one of the most misunderstood economies in the world, yet one of the most important to figure out. Diana has been covering China for over two decades and has written three books. In 2022, she co-authored ‘China’s Quest for Financial Self-reliance How Beijing Plans to Decouple from the Dollar-Based Global Trading and Financial System’; in 2011 ‘The American Phoenix – and Why China and Europe Will Struggle After the Coming Slump’; and in 2006 ‘The Bill from the China Shop – How Asia’s Savings Glut Threatens the World Economy’. For 16 years prior she worked at Lombard Street Research (now TS Lombard), most recently as their Chief Economist and Head of Research, setting the agenda for the firm’s team of economists and strategists while conducting her own global analysis. She joined LSR after completing her master’s degree in Economics at Warwick University in 2000 and became an executive director in 2005. Diana headed the firm’s UK Service from 2005 until 2009. Between 2010 and 2013 she was based in Hong Kong overseeing LSR’s expansion in Asia. Diana writes regular opinion pieces for the Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, Nikkei Asian Review, Foreign Policy etc. She has extensive global experience engaging with all manner of audiences and is a regular commentator on Bloomberg, the BBC, CNBC and others.
Dinny McMahon is an expert on China’s financial system who has spent more than 15 years working on issues relating to China’s banks and capital markets. He is the author of ‘China’s Great Wall of Debt– Shadow Banks, Ghost Cities, Massive Loans, and the End of the Chinese Miracle,’ a bottom-up look at the mechanics of China’s political economy which he wrote while a fellow at the Wilson Center. He lived for 13 years in China, including three years studying Chinese and 10 years working as a financial journalist. His time as a reporter was spent in Beijing as the Wall Street Journal’s banking and finance correspondent, and in Shanghai with Dow Jones Newswires, for whom he covered China’s fledgling foreign exchange markets.
Demetri Kofinas is a media entrepreneur and financial analyst whose mission is to help uncover the hidden forces and pivotal patterns shaping our lives. His contrarian perspective and critical-thinking approach has helped hundreds of thousands of people make smarter, informed decisions. This same methodology has helped guide Demetri’s decision-making as an early-stage investor and as a creator of several innovative media properties and live events.
Demetri Kofinas is a media entrepreneur and financial analyst whose mission is to help uncover the hidden forces and pivotal patterns shaping our lives. His contrarian perspective and critical-thinking approach has helped hundreds of thousands of people make smarter, informed decisions. This same methodology has helped guide Demetri’s decision-making as an early-stage investor and as a creator of several innovative media properties and live events.
Demetri Kofinas is a media entrepreneur and financial analyst whose mission is to help uncover the hidden forces and pivotal patterns shaping our lives. His contrarian perspective and critical-thinking approach has helped hundreds of thousands of people make smarter, informed decisions. This same methodology has helped guide Demetri’s decision-making as an early-stage investor and as a creator of several innovative media properties and live events.
Demetri Kofinas is a media entrepreneur and financial analyst whose mission is to help uncover the hidden forces and pivotal patterns shaping our lives. His contrarian perspective and critical-thinking approach has helped hundreds of thousands of people make smarter, informed decisions. This same methodology has helped guide Demetri’s decision-making as an early-stage investor and as a creator of several innovative media properties and live events.
Demetri Kofinas is a media entrepreneur and financial analyst whose mission is to help uncover the hidden forces and pivotal patterns shaping our lives. His contrarian perspective and critical-thinking approach has helped hundreds of thousands of people make smarter, informed decisions. This same methodology has helped guide Demetri’s decision-making as an early-stage investor and as a creator of several innovative media properties and live events.
