Charles Goodhart was appointed to the Norman Sosnow Chair of Banking and Finance at the London School of Economics (LSE) in 1985, until his retirement in 2002 when he became Emeritus Professor of Banking and Finance. He was elected a Fellow of the British Academy in 1990, and awarded the CBE in 1997, for services to monetary economics. During 1986, he helped to found the Financial Markets Group at LSE. For the previous 17 years he served as a monetary economist at the Bank of England, becoming a Chief Adviser in 1980. Following his advice on overcoming the financial crisis in Hong Kong in 1983, he subsequently served on the HK Exchange Fund Advisory Committee until 1997. Later in 1997 he was appointed for three years, until May 2000, one of the four independent outside members of the newly formed Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee. He became an economic consultant to Morgan Stanley in 2009, until he resigned, at the age of 80, in 2016. It was during this period that he began work on the subject matter of his recent book, The Great Demographic Reversal (Palgrave Macmillan), with his colleague there, Manoj Pradhan. He was written widely on matters relating to monetary policy, especially central banking, and macro-economics. Charles is the author of Goodhart’s Law “that any observed statistical regularity will tend to collapse once pressure is placed upon it for control purposes.”
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Episode 272
Charles Goodhart
The Rise of Inflation & the Great Demographic Reversal | Charles Goodhart
Charles Goodhart was appointed to the Norman Sosnow Chair of Banking and Finance at the London School of Economics (LSE) in 1985, until his retirement in 2002 when he became Emeritus Professor of Banking and Finance. He was elected a Fellow of the British Academy in 1990, and awarded the CBE in 1997, for services to monetary economics. During 1986, he helped to found the Financial Markets Group at LSE. For the previous 17 years he served as a monetary economist at the Bank of England, becoming a Chief Adviser in 1980. Following his advice on overcoming the financial crisis in Hong Kong in 1983, he subsequently served on the HK Exchange Fund Advisory Committee until 1997. Later in 1997 he was appointed for three years, until May 2000, one of the four independent outside members of the newly formed Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee. He became an economic consultant to Morgan Stanley in 2009, until he resigned, at the age of 80, in 2016. It was during this period that he began work on the subject matter of his recent book, The Great Demographic Reversal (Palgrave Macmillan), with his colleague there, Manoj Pradhan. He was written widely on matters relating to monetary policy, especially central banking, and macro-economics. Charles is the author of Goodhart’s Law “that any observed statistical regularity will tend to collapse once pressure is placed upon it for control purposes.”
In Episode 272 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with economist and author Charles Goodhart. Professor Goodhart is widely recognized for his contributions to the fields of monetary economics and central bank policy and is famously associated with what we commonly refer to as “Goodhart’s Law,” the stipulation that any observed statistical regularity ceases to function as an objective or accurate measure the moment that it becomes a target of public policy.
Both professor Goodhart and his co-author and former colleague Manoj Pradhan recently coauthored a book titled “The Great Demographic Reversal,” which puts forward a compelling and controversial argument about the long-term effects of an aging society on inflation, interest rates, investment, savings, and consumption, as well as economic growth and public policy decisions related to things like taxes and government spending—all of which are discussed in today’s episode.
The main argument put forward by both authors is that the inevitable decline in dependency ratios caused by aging demographics will lead to structural, long-term increases in interest rates and inflation that will strain government finances and jeopardize the policy-making independence of central banks as their mandates to control inflation come increasingly into conflict with the objectives of politicians and national governments.
The objective of today’s episode is to more fully explore the arguments and assumptions that Charles Goodhart and his co-author make in their book, the evidence in support of their conclusions, and the implications of their findings and projections for the economy, investors, and governments.
You can access the full episode, transcript, and intelligence report to this week’s conversation through this episode page by clicking on “premium extras.” All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.
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Charles Goodhart was appointed to the Norman Sosnow Chair of Banking and Finance at the London School of Economics (LSE) in 1985, until his retirement in 2002 when he became Emeritus Professor of Banking and Finance. He was elected a Fellow of the British Academy in 1990, and awarded the CBE in 1997, for services to monetary economics. During 1986, he helped to found the Financial Markets Group at LSE. For the previous 17 years he served as a monetary economist at the Bank of England, becoming a Chief Adviser in 1980. Following his advice on overcoming the financial crisis in Hong Kong in 1983, he subsequently served on the HK Exchange Fund Advisory Committee until 1997. Later in 1997 he was appointed for three years, until May 2000, one of the four independent outside members of the newly formed Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee. He became an economic consultant to Morgan Stanley in 2009, until he resigned, at the age of 80, in 2016. It was during this period that he began work on the subject matter of his recent book, The Great Demographic Reversal (Palgrave Macmillan), with his colleague there, Manoj Pradhan. He was written widely on matters relating to monetary policy, especially central banking, and macro-economics. Charles is the author of Goodhart’s Law “that any observed statistical regularity will tend to collapse once pressure is placed upon it for control purposes.”
Demetri Kofinas is a media entrepreneur and financial analyst whose mission is to help uncover the hidden forces and pivotal patterns shaping our lives. His contrarian perspective and critical-thinking approach has helped hundreds of thousands of people make smarter, informed decisions. This same methodology has helped guide Demetri’s decision-making as an early-stage investor and as a creator of several innovative media properties and live events.
Demetri Kofinas is a media entrepreneur and financial analyst whose mission is to help uncover the hidden forces and pivotal patterns shaping our lives. His contrarian perspective and critical-thinking approach has helped hundreds of thousands of people make smarter, informed decisions. This same methodology has helped guide Demetri’s decision-making as an early-stage investor and as a creator of several innovative media properties and live events.
Demetri Kofinas is a media entrepreneur and financial analyst whose mission is to help uncover the hidden forces and pivotal patterns shaping our lives. His contrarian perspective and critical-thinking approach has helped hundreds of thousands of people make smarter, informed decisions. This same methodology has helped guide Demetri’s decision-making as an early-stage investor and as a creator of several innovative media properties and live events.
Demetri Kofinas is a media entrepreneur and financial analyst whose mission is to help uncover the hidden forces and pivotal patterns shaping our lives. His contrarian perspective and critical-thinking approach has helped hundreds of thousands of people make smarter, informed decisions. This same methodology has helped guide Demetri’s decision-making as an early-stage investor and as a creator of several innovative media properties and live events.
Demetri Kofinas is a media entrepreneur and financial analyst whose mission is to help uncover the hidden forces and pivotal patterns shaping our lives. His contrarian perspective and critical-thinking approach has helped hundreds of thousands of people make smarter, informed decisions. This same methodology has helped guide Demetri’s decision-making as an early-stage investor and as a creator of several innovative media properties and live events.
