Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak is Global Chief Economist at BCG and a managing director and partner in the firm’s New York office. He also runs the Center for Macroeconomics at the BCG Henderson Institute. Prior to BCG, Carlsson-Szlezak was Chief Economist at Sanford C. Bernstein, where he covered the economy and markets for institutional investors in the global asset management industry. Earlier in his career, he spent more than 10 years advising financial institutions and governments at BCG, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), and McKinsey & Company. With longtime collaborator Paul Swartz, he regularly publishes technical research for clients and is a frequent contributor to Harvard Business Review, World Economic Forum, Fortune, and other business publications. He studied at the London School of Economicsand earned a PhD from the University of Oxford.
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Episode 370
Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak
How To Assess True Macroeconomic Risk | Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak
Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak is Global Chief Economist at BCG and a managing director and partner in the firm’s New York office. He also runs the Center for Macroeconomics at the BCG Henderson Institute. Prior to BCG, Carlsson-Szlezak was Chief Economist at Sanford C. Bernstein, where he covered the economy and markets for institutional investors in the global asset management industry. Earlier in his career, he spent more than 10 years advising financial institutions and governments at BCG, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), and McKinsey & Company. With longtime collaborator Paul Swartz, he regularly publishes technical research for clients and is a frequent contributor to Harvard Business Review, World Economic Forum, Fortune, and other business publications. He studied at the London School of Economicsand earned a PhD from the University of Oxford.
In Episode 370 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, the Global Chief Economist at BCG and the author of “Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms,” about how to assess macroeconomic risk without relying on broken models, pervasive doom-mongering, and whipsawing data prints that have little to do with the structural drivers of macroeconomic and financial change.
The shocks and crises of recent years are a rude awakening for executives and investors who have spent the last 40 years operating in a relatively benign macroeconomic and political environment. This period of geopolitical convergence characterized by increased trade and capital flows, lengthening business cycles, declining interest rates, and stable inflation is over, forcing corporate leaders and investors alike to recognize that macroeconomic risk is now something that needs to be actively managed.
In the first hour, Demetri asks Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak to explain his core framework of economic eclecticism, which relies on contextual flexibility, situational judgment, and rational optimism that neither ignores tail risks nor drags them to the center of the distribution.
They examine four case studies and their associated narratives to help us understand why so many predictions fail to materialize and how a more eclectic approach to macroeconomic risk assessment could have helped investors and business leaders avoid these pitfalls and take advantage of the economic and financial opportunities created by these events in real-time.
In the second hour, Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak and Demetri discuss the role of government and central bank stimulus as a variable that needs to be actively managed by investors and business executives. They also discuss how to assess the macroeconomic risks associated with a U.S. government debt crisis, the integrity of the U.S. Dollar as a global reserve asset, and how to assess the prospects of technologically induced productivity growth, including AI-driven improvements to a service-oriented economy like the U.S.
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Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak is Global Chief Economist at BCG and a managing director and partner in the firm’s New York office. He also runs the Center for Macroeconomics at the BCG Henderson Institute. Prior to BCG, Carlsson-Szlezak was Chief Economist at Sanford C. Bernstein, where he covered the economy and markets for institutional investors in the global asset management industry. Earlier in his career, he spent more than 10 years advising financial institutions and governments at BCG, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), and McKinsey & Company. With longtime collaborator Paul Swartz, he regularly publishes technical research for clients and is a frequent contributor to Harvard Business Review, World Economic Forum, Fortune, and other business publications. He studied at the London School of Economicsand earned a PhD from the University of Oxford.
Demetri Kofinas is a media entrepreneur and financial analyst whose mission is to help uncover the hidden forces and pivotal patterns shaping our lives. His contrarian perspective and critical-thinking approach has helped hundreds of thousands of people make smarter, informed decisions. This same methodology has helped guide Demetri’s decision-making as an early-stage investor and as a creator of several innovative media properties and live events.
Demetri Kofinas is a media entrepreneur and financial analyst whose mission is to help uncover the hidden forces and pivotal patterns shaping our lives. His contrarian perspective and critical-thinking approach has helped hundreds of thousands of people make smarter, informed decisions. This same methodology has helped guide Demetri’s decision-making as an early-stage investor and as a creator of several innovative media properties and live events.
Demetri Kofinas is a media entrepreneur and financial analyst whose mission is to help uncover the hidden forces and pivotal patterns shaping our lives. His contrarian perspective and critical-thinking approach has helped hundreds of thousands of people make smarter, informed decisions. This same methodology has helped guide Demetri’s decision-making as an early-stage investor and as a creator of several innovative media properties and live events.
Demetri Kofinas is a media entrepreneur and financial analyst whose mission is to help uncover the hidden forces and pivotal patterns shaping our lives. His contrarian perspective and critical-thinking approach has helped hundreds of thousands of people make smarter, informed decisions. This same methodology has helped guide Demetri’s decision-making as an early-stage investor and as a creator of several innovative media properties and live events.
Demetri Kofinas is a media entrepreneur and financial analyst whose mission is to help uncover the hidden forces and pivotal patterns shaping our lives. His contrarian perspective and critical-thinking approach has helped hundreds of thousands of people make smarter, informed decisions. This same methodology has helped guide Demetri’s decision-making as an early-stage investor and as a creator of several innovative media properties and live events.
