
Episode 167
David Shor | What’s Gone Wrong with the Democratic Party & How to Fix it

Episode 167
David Shor
David Shor | What’s Gone Wrong with the Democratic Party & How to Fix it
summary
In Episode 167 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with political data scientist David Shor. David was recently described in New York Magazine as Obama’s “In-House Nate Silver” for his work on the president’s re-election campaign where he was responsible for building and maintaining the campaign’s election forecasting system, which accurately predicted the outcome to within a point in every state and was the primary input to the campaign’s resource allocation decisions in the 2012 election.
In this conversation, David shares his theory about why Democrats have struggled to win elections in recent years, why the polls have been so off in both of the last two presidential elections, and what the implications of his findings are for the viability of the party and its ideological platform and rhetoric.
We also look at how Republicans gained support from African American men and Hispanics in an election year that we were told was supposed to be a referendum on white privilege. Does this mean that identity politics has run its course, or does it just validate the assertions of people like New York Times op-ed columnist Charles Blow who claim that this is simply further evidence of the entrenchment of white supremacy in American society?
David also shares his predictions on the Georgia senate races and gives his opinion on how polling should be reformed. Lastly, Shor explains how education levels correlate with ideological extremism, how this has put Democratic candidates out of step with the majority of Americans, and what this means for policy choices in the event that the Democrats retake control of the senate in 2020 or 2022.
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Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
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Episode Recorded on 12/01/2020
bio
David Shor was previously Head of Political Data Science at Civis Analytics between 2012-2020. He lead the company’s efforts in devising survey methodology for polling operation, helped to operationalize & interpret hundreds of large RCTs, developed an automated forecasting/decision-making product that is used by large swathes of Democratic party leadership, etc. Prior to joining Civis, David was an important part of Barack Obama’s 2012 data analytics team, responsible for maintaining the campaign’s election forecasting system, The Golden Report, which accurately predicted the outcome to within a point in every state and was the primary input to the campaign’s resource allocation decisions. His background is in pure mathematics, with a bachelor’s degree from Florida International University. Shor was also one of only five students nationwide to be awarded a full scholarship to study in Moscow as part of a joint math program between FIU, the Independent University of Moscow, and the Russian Higher School of Economics.
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Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Quod maxime efficit Theophrasti de beata vita liber, in quo multum admodum fortunae datur. Magni enim aestimabat pecuniam non modo non contra leges, sed etiam legibus partam. Tum Piso: Quoniam igitur aliquid omnes, quid Lucius noster? An dolor longissimus quisque miserrimus, voluptatem non optabiliorem diuturnitas facit?
Sed ne, dum huic obsequor, vobis molestus sim. Inscite autem medicinae et gubernationis ultimum cum ultimo sapientiae comparatur. Vives, inquit Aristo, magnifice atque praeclare, quod erit cumque visum ages, numquam angere, numquam cupies, numquam timebis. Duo Reges: constructio interrete. Quod quidem iam fit etiam in Academia. Nondum autem explanatum satis, erat, quid maxime natura vellet. Aufert enim sensus actionemque tollit omnem.
Sunt enim prima elementa naturae, quibus auctis vírtutis quasi germen efficitur. Rationis enim perfectio est virtus; Experiamur igitur, inquit, etsi habet haec Stoicorum ratio difficilius quiddam et obscurius. Tibi hoc incredibile, quod beatissimum. Itaque nostrum est-quod nostrum dico, artis est-ad ea principia, quae accepimus. At iam decimum annum in spelunca iacet.
Utinam quidem dicerent alium alio beatiorem! Iam ruinas videres. Ampulla enim sit necne sit, quis non iure optimo irrideatur, si laboret? Multa sunt dicta ab antiquis de contemnendis ac despiciendis rebus humanis; Zenonis est, inquam, hoc Stoici. Eadem nunc mea adversum te oratio est. Non laboro, inquit, de nomine. Hoc Hieronymus summum bonum esse dixit. Id est enim, de quo quaerimus. Experiamur igitur, inquit, etsi habet haec Stoicorum ratio difficilius quiddam et obscurius.
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Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Idcirco enim non desideraret, quia, quod dolore caret, id in voluptate est. Hos contra singulos dici est melius. Nulla profecto est, quin suam vim retineat a primo ad extremum. Quid de Pythagora? Habes, inquam, Cato, formam eorum, de quibus loquor, philosophorum. Partim cursu et peragratione laetantur, congregatione aliae coetum quodam modo civitatis imitantur;
Nam ante Aristippus, et ille melius. Videsne, ut haec concinant? Eam si varietatem diceres, intellegerem, ut etiam non dicente te intellego; Vide, ne etiam menses! nisi forte eum dicis, qui, simul atque arripuit, interficit. Iam in altera philosophiae parte. Satis est tibi in te, satis in legibus, satis in mediocribus amicitiis praesidii.
Tum ille: Tu autem cum ipse tantum librorum habeas, quos hic tandem requiris? Summum ením bonum exposuit vacuitatem doloris;
Duo Reges: constructio interrete. Ex ea difficultate illae fallaciloquae, ut ait Accius, malitiae natae sunt. Sic consequentibus vestris sublatis prima tolluntur. Transfer idem ad modestiam vel temperantiam, quae est moderatio cupiditatum rationi oboediens. Hoc non est positum in nostra actione.
intelligence report
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Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. At ille non pertimuit saneque fidenter: Istis quidem ipsis verbis, inquit; Quae hic rei publicae vulnera inponebat, eadem ille sanabat. Quia dolori non voluptas contraria est, sed doloris privatio. Quantum Aristoxeni ingenium consumptum videmus in musicis? Non quaeritur autem quid naturae tuae consentaneum sit, sed quid disciplinae. Duo Reges: constructio interrete. Non dolere, inquam, istud quam vim habeat postea videro; Quid sequatur, quid repugnet, vident.
Nam, ut sint illa vendibiliora, haec uberiora certe sunt. Hic Speusippus, hic Xenocrates, hic eius auditor Polemo, cuius illa ipsa sessio fuit, quam videmus. Odium autem et invidiam facile vitabis. Teneo, inquit, finem illi videri nihil dolere. Bona autem corporis huic sunt, quod posterius posui, similiora. Nec vero hoc oratione solum, sed multo magis vita et factis et moribus comprobavit. Quid enim possumus hoc agere divinius?
Huius ego nunc auctoritatem sequens idem faciam. Nam quid possumus facere melius? Nemo igitur esse beatus potest. Quare attendo te studiose et, quaecumque rebus iis, de quibus hic sermo est, nomina inponis, memoriae mando; Quod maxime efficit Theophrasti de beata vita liber, in quo multum admodum fortunae datur. Quid dubitas igitur mutare principia naturae? An haec ab eo non dicuntur? Sin tantum modo ad indicia veteris memoriae cognoscenda, curiosorum. Nam prius a se poterit quisque discedere quam appetitum earum rerum, quae sibi conducant, amittere.
Itaque in rebus minime obscuris non multus est apud eos disserendi labor. Equidem e Cn. An eiusdem modi? Quae qui non vident, nihil umquam magnum ac cognitione dignum amaverunt. Vulgo enim dicitur: Iucundi acti labores, nec male Euripidesconcludam, si potero, Latine; Hic ego: Pomponius quidem, inquam, noster iocari videtur, et fortasse suo iure.
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Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. An, partus ancillae sitne in fructu habendus, disseretur inter principes civitatis, P. Sic vester sapiens magno aliquo emolumento commotus cicuta, si opus erit, dimicabit. Sed tu istuc dixti bene Latine, parum plane. Nunc dicam de voluptate, nihil scilicet novi, ea tamen, quae te ipsum probaturum esse confidam. Duo Reges: constructio interrete. Venit ad extremum;
Itaque eos id agere, ut a se dolores, morbos, debilitates repellant. Et ille ridens: Video, inquit, quid agas; In quo etsi est magnus, tamen nova pleraque et perpauca de moribus. Sed non alienum est, quo facilius vis verbi intellegatur, rationem huius verbi faciendi Zenonis exponere. Itaque ad tempus ad Pisonem omnes. Tum Torquatus: Prorsus, inquit, assentior; Quasi ego id curem, quid ille aiat aut neget. Ratio enim nostra consentit, pugnat oratio.
Ac tamen hic mallet non dolere. Haec igitur Epicuri non probo, inquam. Si quidem, inquit, tollerem, sed relinquo. Haec dicuntur inconstantissime. Quae cum dixisset paulumque institisset, Quid est? Quo plebiscito decreta a senatu est consuli quaestio Cn. Indicant pueri, in quibus ut in speculis natura cernitur. Quae qui non vident, nihil umquam magnum ac cognitione dignum amaverunt. Quod autem satis est, eo quicquid accessit, nimium est; Paulum, cum regem Persem captum adduceret, eodem flumine invectio? Scientiam pollicentur, quam non erat mirum sapientiae cupido patria esse cariorem. Ergo instituto veterum, quo etiam Stoici utuntur, hinc capiamus exordium. Homines optimi non intellegunt totam rationem everti, si ita res se habeat.
At quicum ioca seria, ut dicitur, quicum arcana, quicum occulta omnia? Atqui pugnantibus et contrariis studiis consiliisque semper utens nihil quieti videre, nihil tranquilli potest. Quodsi ipsam honestatem undique pertectam atque absolutam. Quid enim ab antiquis ex eo genere, quod ad disserendum valet, praetermissum est? Si enim ita est, vide ne facinus facias, cum mori suadeas.