Andy Constan has spent the past 35 years investing and trading global markets. Over the last 12 years, he has developed strong expertise in Macro investing working at Bridgewater Associates as an Idea Generator and most recently at Brevan Howard as Chief Strategist. Andy spent the first part of his career at Salomon Brothers and its successor companies. After 17 years at Salomon and as the Head of Global Equity Derivatives, Andy left and started two relative value hedge funds specializing in Multi-Asset Volatility Arbitrage and Capital Structure Arbitrage. Throughout his career, Andy has developed a keen cutting edge understanding of systematic quantitative research and investment while also deeply appreciating the importance of the insights that arise from discretionary investing strategies.
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Episode 389
Andy Constan
Why the Fed Risks Losing Control of the Bond Market | Andy Constan
Andy Constan has spent the past 35 years investing and trading global markets. Over the last 12 years, he has developed strong expertise in Macro investing working at Bridgewater Associates as an Idea Generator and most recently at Brevan Howard as Chief Strategist. Andy spent the first part of his career at Salomon Brothers and its successor companies. After 17 years at Salomon and as the Head of Global Equity Derivatives, Andy left and started two relative value hedge funds specializing in Multi-Asset Volatility Arbitrage and Capital Structure Arbitrage. Throughout his career, Andy has developed a keen cutting edge understanding of systematic quantitative research and investment while also deeply appreciating the importance of the insights that arise from discretionary investing strategies.
In Episode 389 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Andy Constan, the founder and proprietor of Damped Spring Advisors about why he believes the Federal Reserve is at risk of losing the long-end of the bond market, which would lead to a reacceleration of inflation and a hard landing for the economy.
Andy and Demetri spend the first hour discussing the subject of a recent letter he published in which he warns that the Federal Reserve, by continuing to lower interest rates and ease monetary policy, could cause a sell-off in long-bonds and a rise in term premia, paradoxically tightening financial conditions while intending to ease them. They further discuss Treasury issuance, management of the Fed’s balance sheet, the weighted average maturity of assets in the central bank’s portfolio, and how conditions in the U.S. economy measure against the Fed’s summary of economic projections.
In the second hour, Kofinas and Constan dig into the government’s finances, its fiscal picture, and how Trump’s election may exacerbate or alleviate trends that have been in place for decades. They also discuss equity markets, the broadening of the equity rally beyond the Magnificent Seven that’s been underway this year, earnings expectations for these companies, whether they’re elevated or conservative, and how we should go about valuing them.
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Andy Constan has spent the past 35 years investing and trading global markets. Over the last 12 years, he has developed strong expertise in Macro investing working at Bridgewater Associates as an Idea Generator and most recently at Brevan Howard as Chief Strategist. Andy spent the first part of his career at Salomon Brothers and its successor companies. After 17 years at Salomon and as the Head of Global Equity Derivatives, Andy left and started two relative value hedge funds specializing in Multi-Asset Volatility Arbitrage and Capital Structure Arbitrage. Throughout his career, Andy has developed a keen cutting edge understanding of systematic quantitative research and investment while also deeply appreciating the importance of the insights that arise from discretionary investing strategies.
Demetri Kofinas is a media entrepreneur and financial analyst whose mission is to help uncover the hidden forces and pivotal patterns shaping our lives. His contrarian perspective and critical-thinking approach has helped hundreds of thousands of people make smarter, informed decisions. This same methodology has helped guide Demetri’s decision-making as an early-stage investor and as a creator of several innovative media properties and live events.
Demetri Kofinas is a media entrepreneur and financial analyst whose mission is to help uncover the hidden forces and pivotal patterns shaping our lives. His contrarian perspective and critical-thinking approach has helped hundreds of thousands of people make smarter, informed decisions. This same methodology has helped guide Demetri’s decision-making as an early-stage investor and as a creator of several innovative media properties and live events.
Demetri Kofinas is a media entrepreneur and financial analyst whose mission is to help uncover the hidden forces and pivotal patterns shaping our lives. His contrarian perspective and critical-thinking approach has helped hundreds of thousands of people make smarter, informed decisions. This same methodology has helped guide Demetri’s decision-making as an early-stage investor and as a creator of several innovative media properties and live events.
Demetri Kofinas is a media entrepreneur and financial analyst whose mission is to help uncover the hidden forces and pivotal patterns shaping our lives. His contrarian perspective and critical-thinking approach has helped hundreds of thousands of people make smarter, informed decisions. This same methodology has helped guide Demetri’s decision-making as an early-stage investor and as a creator of several innovative media properties and live events.
Demetri Kofinas is a media entrepreneur and financial analyst whose mission is to help uncover the hidden forces and pivotal patterns shaping our lives. His contrarian perspective and critical-thinking approach has helped hundreds of thousands of people make smarter, informed decisions. This same methodology has helped guide Demetri’s decision-making as an early-stage investor and as a creator of several innovative media properties and live events.
