Adam S. Posen has been president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics since January 2013. Over his career, he has contributed to research and public policy regarding monetary and fiscal policies in the G-20, the challenges of European integration since the adoption of the euro, China-US economic relations, and developing new approaches to financial recovery and stability. He was one of the first economists to seriously address the political foundations of central bank independence and to analyze Japan’s Great Recession as a failure of macroeconomic policy. While at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York during 1994–97, he coauthored Inflation Targeting: Lessons from the International Experience with Ben Bernanke, Thomas Laubach, and Frederic Mishkin. During Dr. Posen’s presidency, the Peterson Institute has won global recognition as the leading independent think tank in international economics, including repeated top rankings from the Prospect Think Tank Awards and the Global Go To Think Tank Index. Under his leadership, PIIE has expanded to include 42 world-renowned resident and nonresident fellows and increased its endowment by 50 percent. Since 2013, PIIE has developed high-level recognition and research partnerships in the People’s Republic of China, while deepening longstanding ties with policymakers in other East Asian, European, and North American capitals. The Institute also has broken new ground in providing accessible economic analysis to the general public. In September 2009, Posen was appointed by the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer to serve a three-year term as an external voting member of the Bank of England’s rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). During this critical period for the world economy, Posen advocated an activist policy response to the financial crisis, led the MPC into quantitative easing, and accurately forecast global inflation developments. The Atlantic named him in its line-up of global “Superstar Central Bankers” in 2012. He also consulted for the UK Cabinet Office for the successful London G-20 summit of 2009 during the global financial crisis. He was made an honorary Commander of the Most Excellent Order of the British Empire by Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II in 2014 for his services to British economic policy. He received the Order of the Rising Sun from the government of Japan in 2021 for his distinguished achievements in advancing US-Japanese economic relations and Japanese economic policy in the global context. Posen has been the recipient of major grants and research fellowships from the American Academy in Berlin, the Brookings Institution, the Bank of England, the European Commission, the Ford Foundation, the Sloan Foundation, and the US National Science Foundation. In November 2018, he gave the inaugural Adam Smith Distinguished Lecture at the University of Glasgow. In January 2019, he was named a CEPR Distinguished Fellow. He served seven terms as a member of the Panel of Economic Advisers to the U.S. Congressional Budget Office from 2005 to 2019. Posen received his BA and PhD from Harvard University. Posen has been widely cited and published commentary in leading news and policy publications, including the Financial Times, Foreign Affairs, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Asahi Shimbun, Handelsblatt, Die Welt, Harvard Business Review, and The International Economy. He appears frequently on Bloomberg television and radio, among other media programming.
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Episode 441
Adam Posen
Who Profits in a Post-American World? | Adam Posen
Adam S. Posen has been president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics since January 2013. Over his career, he has contributed to research and public policy regarding monetary and fiscal policies in the G-20, the challenges of European integration since the adoption of the euro, China-US economic relations, and developing new approaches to financial recovery and stability. He was one of the first economists to seriously address the political foundations of central bank independence and to analyze Japan’s Great Recession as a failure of macroeconomic policy. While at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York during 1994–97, he coauthored Inflation Targeting: Lessons from the International Experience with Ben Bernanke, Thomas Laubach, and Frederic Mishkin. During Dr. Posen’s presidency, the Peterson Institute has won global recognition as the leading independent think tank in international economics, including repeated top rankings from the Prospect Think Tank Awards and the Global Go To Think Tank Index. Under his leadership, PIIE has expanded to include 42 world-renowned resident and nonresident fellows and increased its endowment by 50 percent. Since 2013, PIIE has developed high-level recognition and research partnerships in the People’s Republic of China, while deepening longstanding ties with policymakers in other East Asian, European, and North American capitals. The Institute also has broken new ground in providing accessible economic analysis to the general public. In September 2009, Posen was appointed by the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer to serve a three-year term as an external voting member of the Bank of England’s rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). During this critical period for the world economy, Posen advocated an activist policy response to the financial crisis, led the MPC into quantitative easing, and accurately forecast global inflation developments. The Atlantic named him in its line-up of global “Superstar Central Bankers” in 2012. He also consulted for the UK Cabinet Office for the successful London G-20 summit of 2009 during the global financial crisis. He was made an honorary Commander of the Most Excellent Order of the British Empire by Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II in 2014 for his services to British economic policy. He received the Order of the Rising Sun from the government of Japan in 2021 for his distinguished achievements in advancing US-Japanese economic relations and Japanese economic policy in the global context. Posen has been the recipient of major grants and research fellowships from the American Academy in Berlin, the Brookings Institution, the Bank of England, the European Commission, the Ford Foundation, the Sloan Foundation, and the US National Science Foundation. In November 2018, he gave the inaugural Adam Smith Distinguished Lecture at the University of Glasgow. In January 2019, he was named a CEPR Distinguished Fellow. He served seven terms as a member of the Panel of Economic Advisers to the U.S. Congressional Budget Office from 2005 to 2019. Posen received his BA and PhD from Harvard University. Posen has been widely cited and published commentary in leading news and policy publications, including the Financial Times, Foreign Affairs, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Asahi Shimbun, Handelsblatt, Die Welt, Harvard Business Review, and The International Economy. He appears frequently on Bloomberg television and radio, among other media programming.
In Episode 441 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, about the profound transformations underway in the global economy driven by America’s transition away from being the world’s primary insurance provider for international security to its most enterprising racketeer.
In a recently published Foreign Affairs essay titled “The New Economic Geography: Who Profits in a Post-American World?” Adam compares America’s role in the post-World War II era to that of an insurance provider, underwriting global security by protecting international shipping lanes, providing deep and liquid capital markets, and enforcing international laws and standards that have formed the bedrock of the last 80 years of economic growth and prosperity.
Kofinas and Posen spend the first hour of this episode digging into Adam’s insurance framework and why he believes the United States was the largest beneficiary of the system it created. They discuss some of the recent policy changes out of Washington and why they are transforming America’s sphere of influence into something that looks more like a protection racket than a market for affordable insurance.
Adam Posen draws implications for the continued role of US Treasuries as a global safe asset and whether a reduction of foreign capital flows into dollars will ultimately prove stimulative for the resurrection of industrial ecosystems that the administration has identified as vital to American national security and the long-term prosperity of the United States. The two also consider the degree to which the increased premiums that Washington is now charging its allies can be justified by rising risks in the international security environment and by the unpopularity among the MAGA base for foreign U.S. involvement.
The second hour of their conversation turns to questions of execution—specifically, what is required for the successful implementation of a U.S. industrial policy. This includes a discussion about apprenticeships, skilled immigration, government-supported R&D, federal funding for university science and technology programs, and more integration and collaboration with allied economies.
Posen and Kofinas also discuss why the use of tariffs, subsidies, and export controls—including the CHIPS and Science Act—implemented during both Joe Biden’s and Donald Trump’s administrations have underdelivered. They also examine why the current administration’s trade policies have been oddly more accommodative toward China than toward America’s closest allies and why this will ultimately prove to be a losing strategy in the long-term.
Lastly, Demetri asks Adam for his view on what the recent battles between the Fed and the White House mean for the future of Fed independence and if Washington is laying the groundwork for a long-term rise in inflation expectations as it seeks to monetize its debt and deficits through an increasingly compliant and captured central bank.
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Adam S. Posen has been president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics since January 2013. Over his career, he has contributed to research and public policy regarding monetary and fiscal policies in the G-20, the challenges of European integration since the adoption of the euro, China-US economic relations, and developing new approaches to financial recovery and stability. He was one of the first economists to seriously address the political foundations of central bank independence and to analyze Japan’s Great Recession as a failure of macroeconomic policy. While at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York during 1994–97, he coauthored Inflation Targeting: Lessons from the International Experience with Ben Bernanke, Thomas Laubach, and Frederic Mishkin.
During Dr. Posen’s presidency, the Peterson Institute has won global recognition as the leading independent think tank in international economics, including repeated top rankings from the Prospect Think Tank Awards and the Global Go To Think Tank Index. Under his leadership, PIIE has expanded to include 42 world-renowned resident and nonresident fellows and increased its endowment by 50 percent. Since 2013, PIIE has developed high-level recognition and research partnerships in the People’s Republic of China, while deepening longstanding ties with policymakers in other East Asian, European, and North American capitals. The Institute also has broken new ground in providing accessible economic analysis to the general public.
In September 2009, Posen was appointed by the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer to serve a three-year term as an external voting member of the Bank of England’s rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). During this critical period for the world economy, Posen advocated an activist policy response to the financial crisis, led the MPC into quantitative easing, and accurately forecast global inflation developments. The Atlantic named him in its line-up of global “Superstar Central Bankers” in 2012. He also consulted for the UK Cabinet Office for the successful London G-20 summit of 2009 during the global financial crisis.
He was made an honorary Commander of the Most Excellent Order of the British Empire by Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II in 2014 for his services to British economic policy. He received the Order of the Rising Sun from the government of Japan in 2021 for his distinguished achievements in advancing US-Japanese economic relations and Japanese economic policy in the global context.
Posen has been the recipient of major grants and research fellowships from the American Academy in Berlin, the Brookings Institution, the Bank of England, the European Commission, the Ford Foundation, the Sloan Foundation, and the US National Science Foundation. In November 2018, he gave the inaugural Adam Smith Distinguished Lecture at the University of Glasgow. In January 2019, he was named a CEPR Distinguished Fellow. He served seven terms as a member of the Panel of Economic Advisers to the U.S. Congressional Budget Office from 2005 to 2019. Posen received his BA and PhD from Harvard University.
Posen has been widely cited and published commentary in leading news and policy publications, including the Financial Times, Foreign Affairs, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Asahi Shimbun, Handelsblatt, Die Welt, Harvard Business Review, and The International Economy. He appears frequently on Bloomberg television and radio, among other media programming.
Demetri Kofinas is a media entrepreneur and financial analyst whose mission is to help uncover the hidden forces and pivotal patterns shaping our lives. His contrarian perspective and critical-thinking approach has helped hundreds of thousands of people make smarter, informed decisions. This same methodology has helped guide Demetri’s decision-making as an early-stage investor and as a creator of several innovative media properties and live events.
Demetri Kofinas is a media entrepreneur and financial analyst whose mission is to help uncover the hidden forces and pivotal patterns shaping our lives. His contrarian perspective and critical-thinking approach has helped hundreds of thousands of people make smarter, informed decisions. This same methodology has helped guide Demetri’s decision-making as an early-stage investor and as a creator of several innovative media properties and live events.
Demetri Kofinas is a media entrepreneur and financial analyst whose mission is to help uncover the hidden forces and pivotal patterns shaping our lives. His contrarian perspective and critical-thinking approach has helped hundreds of thousands of people make smarter, informed decisions. This same methodology has helped guide Demetri’s decision-making as an early-stage investor and as a creator of several innovative media properties and live events.
Demetri Kofinas is a media entrepreneur and financial analyst whose mission is to help uncover the hidden forces and pivotal patterns shaping our lives. His contrarian perspective and critical-thinking approach has helped hundreds of thousands of people make smarter, informed decisions. This same methodology has helped guide Demetri’s decision-making as an early-stage investor and as a creator of several innovative media properties and live events.
Demetri Kofinas is a media entrepreneur and financial analyst whose mission is to help uncover the hidden forces and pivotal patterns shaping our lives. His contrarian perspective and critical-thinking approach has helped hundreds of thousands of people make smarter, informed decisions. This same methodology has helped guide Demetri’s decision-making as an early-stage investor and as a creator of several innovative media properties and live events.
