Le Shrub (Shrubbery Capital) Oxford Uni, Engineering, Economics and Mgmt l 2004-06 Lazard M&A l 2006-2011 Event-driven / special sits investing at Paulson Partners, working with the man who did the Big Short, quite an inspiration l 2011-2021 Portfolio manager in special sits in Monaco and London-based funds, involved in distressed financials during European Crisis and other special sits l 2021- current: CIO at a family office in Monaco with an open mandate. Paulo Macro has over 20 years of combined sell-side and buy-side experience. His passion lies in trying to solve the unsolvable market puzzle as an independent practitioner and, now, a writer. His public contributions began on Twitter and have since migrated to his substack at paulomacro.substack.com.
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Episode 410
Paulo Macro & Le Shrub
Capital Wars and the Death of Fiscal Illusions | Paulo Macro & Le Shrub
Le Shrub (Shrubbery Capital) Oxford Uni, Engineering, Economics and Mgmt l 2004-06 Lazard M&A l 2006-2011 Event-driven / special sits investing at Paulson Partners, working with the man who did the Big Short, quite an inspiration l 2011-2021 Portfolio manager in special sits in Monaco and London-based funds, involved in distressed financials during European Crisis and other special sits l 2021- current: CIO at a family office in Monaco with an open mandate. Paulo Macro has over 20 years of combined sell-side and buy-side experience. His passion lies in trying to solve the unsolvable market puzzle as an independent practitioner and, now, a writer. His public contributions began on Twitter and have since migrated to his substack at paulomacro.substack.com.
In Episode 410 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with investors Paulo Macro and Le Shrub about the consequences of a breakdown in the international capital and trading system—and what this means for markets and investor portfolios.
The first hour revisits last year’s discussion on “EM-ification,” the breakdown of the rules-based global order, and the urgent search for a new safe asset in a world of deteriorating fiscal balance sheets. Together, Demetri, Paulo, and Le Shrub map out what investors should be paying attention to in the year ahead.
In the second hour, the conversation turns to the implications of a full-blown trade and capital war, including:
The impact on U.S. assets—especially Treasuries and the dollar—if surplus nations redirect their capital flows away from the United States
Resurgent inflation fueled by strategic rearmament and industrial policy
A potential decoupling from—and even a hot war with—China
The abandonment of fiscal restraint in the face of an economic slowdown amid persistently high or rising borrowing costs for the U.S. government
The risk of massive wealth destruction triggered by a dramatic revaluation of the U.S. dollar
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Le Shrub (Shrubbery Capital) Oxford Uni, Engineering, Economics and Mgmt l 2004-06 Lazard M&A l 2006-2011 Event-driven / special sits investing at Paulson Partners, working with the man who did the Big Short, quite an inspiration l 2011-2021 Portfolio manager in special sits in Monaco and London-based funds, involved in distressed financials during European Crisis and other special sits l 2021- current: CIO at a family office in Monaco with an open mandate.
Paulo Macro has over 20 years of combined sell-side and buy-side experience. His passion lies in trying to solve the unsolvable market puzzle as an independent practitioner and, now, a writer. His public contributions began on Twitter and have since migrated to his substack at paulomacro.substack.com.
Demetri Kofinas is a media entrepreneur and financial analyst whose mission is to help uncover the hidden forces and pivotal patterns shaping our lives. His contrarian perspective and critical-thinking approach has helped hundreds of thousands of people make smarter, informed decisions. This same methodology has helped guide Demetri’s decision-making as an early-stage investor and as a creator of several innovative media properties and live events.
Demetri Kofinas is a media entrepreneur and financial analyst whose mission is to help uncover the hidden forces and pivotal patterns shaping our lives. His contrarian perspective and critical-thinking approach has helped hundreds of thousands of people make smarter, informed decisions. This same methodology has helped guide Demetri’s decision-making as an early-stage investor and as a creator of several innovative media properties and live events.
Demetri Kofinas is a media entrepreneur and financial analyst whose mission is to help uncover the hidden forces and pivotal patterns shaping our lives. His contrarian perspective and critical-thinking approach has helped hundreds of thousands of people make smarter, informed decisions. This same methodology has helped guide Demetri’s decision-making as an early-stage investor and as a creator of several innovative media properties and live events.
Demetri Kofinas is a media entrepreneur and financial analyst whose mission is to help uncover the hidden forces and pivotal patterns shaping our lives. His contrarian perspective and critical-thinking approach has helped hundreds of thousands of people make smarter, informed decisions. This same methodology has helped guide Demetri’s decision-making as an early-stage investor and as a creator of several innovative media properties and live events.
Demetri Kofinas is a media entrepreneur and financial analyst whose mission is to help uncover the hidden forces and pivotal patterns shaping our lives. His contrarian perspective and critical-thinking approach has helped hundreds of thousands of people make smarter, informed decisions. This same methodology has helped guide Demetri’s decision-making as an early-stage investor and as a creator of several innovative media properties and live events.
